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Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions.

ABSTRACT: Many economic analyses, including those that address the COVID-19 pandemic, focus on the value of averting deaths and do not include the value of averting nonfatal illnesses. Yet incorporating the value of averting nonfatal cases may change conclusions about the desirability of the policy. While per case values may be small, the number of nonfatal cases is often large, far outstripping the number of fatal cases. The value of averting nonfatal cases is also increasingly important in evaluating COVID-19 policy options as vaccine- and infection-related immunity and treatments reduce the case-fatality rate. Unfortunately, little valuation research is available that explicitly addresses COVID-19 morbidity. We describe and implement an approach for approximating the value of averting nonfatal illnesses or injuries and apply it to COVID-19 in the United States. We estimate gains from averting COVID-19 morbidity of about 0.01 quality-adjusted life year (QALY) per mild case averted, 0.02 QALY per severe case, and 3.15 QALYs per critical case. These gains translate into monetary values of about $5,300 per mild case, $11,000 per severe case, and $1.8 million per critical case. While these estimates are imprecise, they suggest the magnitude of the effects.

SUBMITTER: Robinson LA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9455599 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions.

Robinson Lisa A LA Eber Michael R MR Hammitt James K JK

Journal of benefit-cost analysis 20220803 2

Many economic analyses, including those that address the COVID-19 pandemic, focus on the value of averting deaths and do not include the value of averting nonfatal illnesses. Yet incorporating the value of averting nonfatal cases may change conclusions about the desirability of the policy. While per case values may be small, the number of nonfatal cases is often large, far outstripping the number of fatal cases. The value of averting nonfatal cases is also increasingly important in evaluating CO ...[more]

PMID: 36090595

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Project description:ImportanceThe time interval between COVID-19 infection and surgery is a potentially modifiable but understudied risk factor for postoperative complications.ObjectiveTo examine the association between time to surgery after COVID-19 diagnosis and the risk of a composite of major postoperative cardiovascular morbidity events within 30 days of surgery.Design, setting, and participantsThis single-center, retrospective cohort study was conducted among 3997 adult patients (aged ≥18 years) with a previous diagnosis of COVID-19, as documented by a positive polymerase chain reaction test result, who were undergoing surgery from January 1, 2020, to December 6, 2021. Data were obtained through Structured Query Language access of an existing perioperative data warehouse. Statistical analysis was performed March 29, 2022.ExposureThe time interval between COVID-19 diagnosis and surgery.Main outcomes and measuresThe primary outcome was the composite occurrence of major cardiovascular comorbidity, defined as deep vein thrombosis, pulmonary embolism, cerebrovascular accident, myocardial injury, acute kidney injury, and death within 30 days after surgery, using multivariable logistic regression.ResultsA total of 3997 patients (2223 [55.6%]; median age, 51.3 years [IQR, 35.1-64.4 years]; 667 [16.7%] African American or Black; 2990 [74.8%] White; and 340 [8.5%] other race) were included in the study. The median time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was 98 days (IQR, 30-225 days). Major postoperative adverse cardiovascular events were identified in 485 patients (12.1%). Increased time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was associated with a decreased rate of the composite outcome (adjusted odds ratio, 0.99 [per 10 days]; 95% CI, 0.98-1.00; P = .006). This trend persisted for the 1552 patients who had received at least 1 dose of COVID-19 vaccine (adjusted odds ratio, 0.98 [per 10 days]; 95% CI, 0.97-1.00; P = .04).Conclusions and relevanceThis study suggests that increased time from COVID-19 diagnosis to surgery was associated with a decreased odds of experiencing major postoperative cardiovascular morbidity. This information should be used to better inform risk-benefit discussions concerning optimal surgical timing and perioperative outcomes for patients with a history of COVID-19 infection.

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Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions.

Publications

Valuing COVID-19 Morbidity Risk Reductions.

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