Estimation and worldwide monitoring of the effective reproductive number of SARS-CoV-2.

ABSTRACT: The effective reproductive number R_e is a key indicator of the growth of an epidemic. Since the start of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, many methods and online dashboards have sprung up to monitor this number through time. However, these methods are not always thoroughly tested, correctly placed in time, or are overly confident during high incidence periods. Here, we present a method for timely estimation of R_e, applied to COVID-19 epidemic data from 170 countries. We thoroughly evaluate the method on simulated data, and present an intuitive web interface for interactive data exploration. We show that, in early 2020, in the majority of countries the estimated R_e dropped below 1 only after the introduction of major non-pha

SUBMITTER: Huisman JS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9467515 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature