Sensitivity analysis on the declining population in Japan: Effects of prefecture-specific fertility and interregional migration.

ABSTRACT: Japan has been facing a population decline since 2010 due to low birth rates, interregional migration, and regional traits. In this study, we modeled the demographic dynamics of Japan using a transition matrix model. Then, from the mathematical structure of the model, we quantitatively evaluated the domestic factors of population decline. To achieve this, we constructed a multi-regional Leslie matrix model and developed a method for representing the reproductive value and stable age distribution using matrix entries. Our method enabled us to interpret the mathematical indices using the genealogies of the migration history of individuals and their ancestors. Furthermore, by combining our method with sensitivity analysis, we analyzed the effect of region-specific fertility rates and interreg

SUBMITTER: Oizumi R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9473415 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature