Estimation of heterogeneous instantaneous reproduction numbers with application to characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Massachusetts counties.

ABSTRACT: The reproductive number is an important metric that has been widely used to quantify the infectiousness of communicable diseases. The time-varying instantaneous reproductive number is useful for monitoring the real-time dynamics of a disease to inform policy making for disease control. Local estimation of this metric, for instance at a county or city level, allows for more targeted interventions to curb transmission. However, simultaneous estimation of local reproductive numbers must account for potential sources of heterogeneity in these time-varying quantities-a key element of which is human mobility. We develop a statistical method that incorporates human mobility between multiple regions for estimating region-specific instantaneous reproductive numbers. The model also can account for e

SUBMITTER: Zhou Z 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9473631 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature