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Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

ABSTRACT: Thyroid nodules (TNs) represent a common scenario. More accurate pre-operative diagnosis of malignancy has become an overriding concern. This study incorporated demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data and aimed to compare a new diagnostic prediction model based on Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with multivariate logistic regression model, to guide the decision of surgery. Records of 2,090 patients with TNs who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that Bethesda category (OR=1.90, P<0.001), TIRADS (OR=2.55, P<0.001), age (OR=0.97, P=0.002), nodule size (OR=0.53, P<0.001), and serum levels of Tg (OR=0.994, P=0.004) and HDL-C (OR=0.23, P=0.001) were statistically significant independent differentiators for patients with PTC and benign nodules. Both BPNN and regression models showed good accuracy in differentiating PTC from benign nodules (area under the curve [AUC], 0.948 and 0.924, respectively). Notably, the BPNN model showed a higher specificity (88.3% vs. 73.9%) and negative predictive value (83.7% vs. 45.8%) than the regression model, while the sensitivity (93.1% vs. 93.9%) was similar between two models. Stratified analysis based on Bethesda indeterminate cytology categories showed similar findings. Therefore, BPNN and regression models based on a combination of demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data, all of which were readily available in routine clinical practice, might help guide the decision of surgery for TNs.

SUBMITTER: Zhang X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9483149 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Zhang Xiaowen X Ze Yuyang Y Sang Jianfeng J Shi Xianbiao X Bi Yan Y Shen Shanmei S Zhang Xinlin X Zhu Dalong D

Frontiers in endocrinology 20220905

Thyroid nodules (TNs) represent a common scenario. More accurate pre-operative diagnosis of malignancy has become an overriding concern. This study incorporated demographic, serological, ultrasound, and biopsy data and aimed to compare a new diagnostic prediction model based on Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN) with multivariate logistic regression model, to guide the decision of surgery. Records of 2,090 patients with TNs who underwent thyroid surgery were retrospectively reviewed. Multiva ...[more]

PMID: 36133306

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Project description:BackgroundOver the past ten years, the incidence rate of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) worldwide has been increasing rapidly year by year, with the incidence rate increasing 6% annually. PTC has become the malignant tumor with the highest growth rate in the world that fourteen PTC-related mutant genes have been identified. Whether the BRAFV600E mutation related to more aggressive clinicopathologic features and worse outcome in PTC remains variable and controversial. We aim to investigate the risk factors that may predict the BRAFV600E mutation potential of these lesions and new prevention strategies in PTC patients.MethodsA total of 9,908 papillary thyroid carcinoma patients with average 74.6% BRAFV600E mutations were analyzed (RevMan 5.3 software) in this study. The PubMed, Embase, and ISI Web of Science databases were systematically searched for works published through December 15, 2021.ResultsThe following variables were associated with an increased risk of BRAFV600E mutation in PTC patients: age ≥ 45 years (OR = 1.39, 95%CI = 1.21-1.60, p < 0.00001), male gender (OR = 1.13, 95%CI = 0.99-1.28, p = 0.06), multifocality (OR = 1.22, 95%CI = 1.07-1.40, p = 0.004), lymph node metastasis (OR = 1.33, 95%CI = 0.79-2.23, p = 0.28), extrathyroidal extension + (OR = 1.61, 95%CI = 1.06-2.44, p = 0.03), vascular invasion + (OR = 2.04, 95%CI = 1.32-3.15, p = 0.001), and tumor node metastasis stage (OR = 1.61, 95%CI = 1.38-1.88, p < 0.00001). In addition, tumor size (>1 cm) (OR = 0.51, 95%CI = 0.32-0.81, p = 0.005) and distant metastasis (OR = 0.69, 95%CI = 0.22-2.21, p = 0.54) had no association or risk with BRAFV600E mutation in PTC patients.ConclusionOur systematic review identified the following significant risk factors of BRAFV600E mutation in PTC patients: age (≥45 years), gender (male), multifocality, lymph node metastasis, vascular invasion, extrathyroidal extension, and advanced tumor node metastasis stage (stages III and IV). Tumor size (>1 cm) and distant metastasis do not appear to be correlated with BRAFV600E mutation in PTC patients.

Project description:ImportanceRadiofrequency ablation (RFA) has gained increasing interest as a minimally invasive procedure to treat low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). Considering the indolent nature of this disease, studies in large populations with long follow-up would be invaluable to further substantiate the effectiveness of RFA.ObjectiveTo evaluate the long-term (58.5 months) outcomes of patients with T1N0M0 PTC who underwent RFA and investigate risk factors for local tumor progression (LTP).Design, setting, and participantsThis cohort study included 1613 patients aged 18 years or older with T1N0M0 PTC who underwent ultrasonography-guided RFA between January 2014 and December 2020 at the Chinese People's Liberation Army General Hospital in Beijing, China. Included in the analysis were patients with PTC (confirmed by biopsy) with a maximum diameter of 20 mm or less; no evidence of extrathyroidal extension (capsular disruption or involvement of perithyroidal tissue), lymph node metastasis, or distant metastasis on ultrasonography or computed tomography; and no evidence of an aggressive subtype of PTC on biopsy. Patients with PTC larger than 2 cm, less than 12 months of follow-up, or inadequate follow-up information were excluded. Data were analyzed in April 2023.Main outcomes and measuresLong-term progression rate, disease-free survival, and complete tumor disappearance and their associations with patient and tumor characteristics. Disease-free survival was calculated using Kaplan-Meier analysis. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were performed to assess risk factors for LTP and complete tumor disappearance.ResultsThe study comprised 1613 patients (mean [SD] age, 43.3 [10.2] years; 1256 women [77.9%]) with 1834 T1N0M0 PTC tumors. During a mean follow-up of 58.5 months (range, 27 to 111 months), LTP was observed in 69 patients (4.3%), including 42 (2.6%) with tumor recurrence and 27 (1.7%) with tumor persistence. Cumulative disease-free survival rates at 1, 3, 5, and 8 years were 98.0%, 96.7%, 96.0%, and 95.7%, respectively. The overall complication rate was 2.0% (32 patients), with 6 (0.4%) major complications. Independent risk factors for LTP included subcapsular tumor location 2 mm or less from the capsule or trachea (hazard ratio [HR], 3.36; 95% CI, 2.02-5.59; P < .001) and multifocal tumors (HR, 2.27; 95% CI, 1.30-3.96; P = .004). Furthermore, 1376 patients (85.3%) showed complete tumor disappearance at follow-up ultrasonographic examination. Factors associated with complete tumor disappearance included age 40 years or less (HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.70-0.87; P < .001), stage T1a tumors (HR, 0.37; 95% CI, 0.31-0.45; P < .001), and unifocal tumors (HR, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.42-0.60; P < .001).Conclusions and relevanceIn this cohort study, ultrasonography-guided RFA for T1N0M0 PTC had excellent long-term outcomes. Patients with unifocal T1N0M0 PTC and subcapsular tumor location more than 2 mm from the capsule or trachea may be the best candidates for RFA.

Project description:IntroductionThyroid cancer is the most prevalent endocrine malignancy, with its global incidence increasing annually in recent years. Papillary carcinoma is the most common subtype, frequently accompanied by cervical lymph node metastasis early on. Central lymph node metastasis (CLNM) is particularly the common metastasis form in this subtype, and the presence of lymph node metastasis correlates strongly with tumor recurrence. However, effective preoperative assessment methods for CLNM in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remain lacking.MethodsData from 400 patients diagnosed with PTC between January 1, 2018, and January 1, 2022, at the Shandong Provincial Hospital were retrospectively analyzed. This data included clinicopathological information of the patients, such as thyroid function, BRAF V600E mutation, whether complicated with Hashimoto's thyroiditis, and the presence of capsular invasion. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to assess the risk factors associated with cervical CLNM in patients with PTC. Subsequently, a clinical prediction model was constructed, and prognostic risk factors were identified based on univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses.ResultsUnivariate and multivariate analyses identified that age >45 years (P=0.014), body mass index ≥25 (P=0.008), tumor size ≥1 cm (P=0.001), capsular invasion (P=0.001), and the presence of BRAF V600E mutation (P<0.001) were significantly associated with an increased risk of CLNM. Integrating these factors into the nomogram revealed an area-under-the-curve of 0.791 (95% confidence interval 0.735-0.846) and 0.765 (95% confidence interval: 0.677-0.852) for the training and validation sets, respectively, indicating strong discriminative abilities. Subgroup analysis further confirmed that patients with papillary thyroid microcarcinoma and BRAF V600E mutations who underwent therapeutic central compartment neck dissection had significantly better 3-year disease-free survival than those who had prophylactic central compartment neck dissection (P<0.001).ConclusionThe study revealed that age >45 years, body mass index ≥25, tumor size ≥1 cm, BRAF V600E mutation, and capsular invasion are the related risk factors for CLNM in patients with PTC. For patients with clinically nodal-negative (cN0) papillary thyroid microcarcinoma, accurately identifying the BRAF V600E mutation is essential for guiding the central lymph node dissection approach and subsequent treatments.

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Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

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Risk factors and diagnostic prediction models for papillary thyroid carcinoma.

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