Dataset Information

Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

ABSTRACT: Lip and oral cavity cancer is a common malignancy faced by many developing countries, and the disease burden is high in China. This study explored this cancer burden and its risk factors using data from China in the GBD 2019, along with predicting the incidence trends in 2020-2049. Data on age-standardized rates (ASR), incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), by sex, age and risk factors were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Joinpoint regression and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models were selected to analyze the epidemic trend of this cancer in China, and descriptive analysis was used for the time trend and age distribution of risk factors. The Bayesian APC model was selected to foresee the incidence trend in 2020-2049. This cancer burden was found to be in an upward trend in China in 1990-2019. The upward trend was more pronounced among men than among women. These cancer deaths and DALYs are overwhelmingly attributable to smoking and drinking. On APC analysis, the younger generation in China demonstrated a lower cancer risk. In 2049, the incidence of this cancer is projected to be 3.99/100,000, 6.07/100,000, 7.37/100,000, 10.49/100,000, 14.82/100,000, 19.19/100,000, 20.71/100,000, 23.64/100,000, 16.42/100,000 and 9.91/100,000 among those aged 50-54, 55-59, 60-64, 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84, 85-89, 85-89 and over 95 years, respectively. Disease control policies and early screening should focus on men and the elderly and target different risk factors.

SUBMITTER: Zhang J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9498681 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

Zhang Jingya J Lu Yongbo Y Li Haoran H Zhang Ning N He Rongxin R Zhang Ruhao R Mao Ying Y Zhu Bin B

Healthcare (Basel, Switzerland) 20220824 9

Lip and oral cavity cancer is a common malignancy faced by many developing countries, and the disease burden is high in China. This study explored this cancer burden and its risk factors using data from China in the GBD 2019, along with predicting the incidence trends in 2020-2049. Data on age-standardized rates (ASR), incidence, death and disability-adjusted life years (DALY), by sex, age and risk factors were collected from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME). Joinpoint regr ...[more]

PMID: 36141223

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Project description:AimsThis study addresses the essential need for updated information on the burden of lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) in China for informed healthcare planning. We aim to estimate the temporal trends and the attributable burdens of selected risk factors of LOC in China (1990-2021), and to predict the possible trends (2022-2031).Subject and methodsAnalysis was conducted using data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2021, encompassing six key metrics: incidence, mortality, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and years of life lost (YLLs). Absolute number and age-standardized rates, alongside 95% uncertainty intervals, were computed. Forecasting of disease burden from 2022 to 2031 was performed using an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.ResultsOver the observed period (1990-2021), there were notable increases in the number of deaths (142.2%), incidence (283.7%), prevalence (438.0%), DALYs (109.2%), YLDs (341.2%), and YLLs (105.1%). Age-standardized rates demonstrated notable changes, showing decreases and increases of -5.8, 57.3, 143.7, -8.9%, 85.8%, and - 10.7% in the respective metrics. The substantial majority of LOC burden was observed among individuals aged 40-79 years, and LOC may exhibit a higher burden among males in China. From 2022 to 2031, the age-standardized rate of incidence, prevalence, and YLDs of LOC showed upward trends; while mortality, DALYs, and YLLs showed downward trends, and their estimated values were predicted to change to 2.72, 10.47, 1.11, 1.10, 28.52, and 27.43 per 100,000 in 2031, respectively. Notably, tobacco and high alcohol use emerged as predominant risk factors contributing to the burden of LOC.ConclusionBetween 1990 and 2021, the disability burden from LOC in China increased, while the death burden decreased, and projections suggest these trends will persist over the next decade. A significant portion of this disease burden to modifiable risk factors, specifically tobacco use and excessive alcohol consumption, predominantly affecting males and individuals aged 40-79 years. Attention to these areas is essential for implementing targeted interventions and reducing the impact of LOC in China.

Project description:Background: Colorectal cancer remains a public health problem worldwide. Dietary risk factors play a key role in the carcinogenesis and progression of colorectal cancer. This study aimed to explore the geographical and temporal trends in various dietary factor-related colorectal cancers. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study, including the deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), age-standardized rate (ASR), and summary exposure value (SEV) among 4 world regions, 11 age groups, 21 regions, and 204 countries and territories between 1990 and 2019. The estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) were calculated to evaluate the variation trend of ASR. Results: Dietary factors were the leading cause of colorectal cancer death and DALY rate, regardless of age. Dietary factor-related deaths and DALYs accounted for 32 and 34% of global colorectal cancer, respectively. Further analysis showed that low whole grain intake remained the leading cause of cancer death and DALY rate, followed by milk and calcium. Diets that were low in whole grains, milk, and calcium accounted for 81.61% of deaths and 81.64% of DALYs. Deaths and DALYs of dietary factors related to colorectal cancer grew by half from 1990 to 2019. All ASRs remained higher for men than women. Asia carried the highest colorectal cancer burden attributed to dietary risks, especially for East Asia [age-standardized death rate (ASDR): EAPC = 1.15, 95% CI:0.88-1.42; DALY: EAPC = 1.08, 95% CI:0.82-1.34]. The heavy burden also existed in high-middle and middle socio-demographic index (SDI) quintiles. China has always had the highest deaths and DALYs of colorectal cancer attributable to dietary risks, followed by the USA, India, and Japan. Conclusions: Large variations existed in the dietary risk-related colorectal cancer burdens among sexes, regions, and countries. More targeted interventions to address modifiable dietary risk factors would save 32% of deaths and 34% of DALYs for colorectal cancer.

Project description:BackgroundRising trends in early-onset Lip and oral cavity cancer (LOC) and Other pharyngeal cancer (OPC) burden had been observed. This study aimed to evaluate the burdens of LOC and OPC attributable to tobacco and alcohol in young adults aged 15-49 years from 1990 to 2040.MethodsTobacco- and alcohol-attributable death and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for LOC and OPC and the corresponding population-attributable fraction were obtained from Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 for individuals aged 15-49 years. Estimated annual percent change was calculated to quantify the temporal trend of disease burden between 1990 and 2019. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict the age-standardized mortality rate from 2020 to 2040.ResultsIn 2019, an estimated 16,887 deaths and 799,495 DALYs for tobacco- and alcohol-attributable early-onset LOC, and 8,402 deaths and 386,418 DALYs for early-onset OPC attributable to tobacco and alcohol were reported globally. Despite the global decrease in age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates of tobacco- and alcohol-attributable LOC and OPC in young adults aged 15-49 years between 1990 and 2019, certain regions experienced increases, such as regions of Asia, Eastern Europe, and Western Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, a growing age-standardized mortality in individuals aged <34 years was found. The socio-demographic index level was positively associated with a faster reduction of early-onset LOC and OPC DALYs attributable to alcohol use and smoking, except for that due to chewing tobacco. Furthermore, projections have also indicated an expected increase in the age-standardized mortality for tobacco- and alcohol-attributable early-onset LOC and OPC.ConclusionsSignificant regional and demographic disparities in tobacco and alcohol-related early-onset LOC and OPC burden and their attributable proportion highlight a need for tailored age- and region-appropriate interventions to reduce the future LOC and OPC burden among young adults.

Dataset Information

Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

Publications

Lip and Oral Cavity Cancer Burden and Related Risk Factors in China: Estimates and Forecasts from 1990 to 2049.

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