Modeling the Impact of Exogenous Boosting and Universal Varicella Vaccination on the Clinical and Economic Burden of Varicella and Herpes Zoster in a Dynamic Population for England and Wales.

ABSTRACT: Universal varicella vaccination (UVV) in England and Wales has been hindered by its potential impact on exogenous boosting and increase in herpes zoster (HZ) incidence. We projected the impact of ten UVV strategies in England and Wales on the incidence of varicella and HZ and evaluated their cost-effectiveness over 50 years. The Maternal-Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated transmission model was extended in a dynamically changing, age-structured population. Our model estimated that one- or two-dose UVV strategies significantly reduced varicella incidence (70-92%), hospitalizations (70-90%), and mortality (16-41%) over 50 years. A small rise in HZ cases was projected with UVV, peaking 22 years after introduction at 5.3-7.1% above pre-UVV rates. Subsequently, HZ incidence stead

SUBMITTER: Sharomi O 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9501498 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature