Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.

ABSTRACT: In Japan, a decrease in cardiovascular mortality has coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of reduced population salt intake on the long-term trends of cardiovascular mortality. Using government statistics and epidemiological study results in people of 20-69 years old from 1950 to 2017, including the National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a system dynamics model of age-specific cardiovascular mortality and salt intake. We estimated the period and cohort effects on mortality and calibrated the model for the historical mortality rate. We then simulated the counterfactual scenario of no decrease in salt intake to estimate the reduction in cardiovascular deaths associated with decreased mean salt intake.

SUBMITTER: Sugiyama T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9506165 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature