Dataset Information

Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.

ABSTRACT: In Japan, a decrease in cardiovascular mortality has coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of reduced population salt intake on the long-term trends of cardiovascular mortality. Using government statistics and epidemiological study results in people of 20-69 years old from 1950 to 2017, including the National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a system dynamics model of age-specific cardiovascular mortality and salt intake. We estimated the period and cohort effects on mortality and calibrated the model for the historical mortality rate. We then simulated the counterfactual scenario of no decrease in salt intake to estimate the reduction in cardiovascular deaths associated with decreased mean salt intake. Compared with the base run and calibrated to the actual data, approximately 298,000 and 118,000 excess deaths were observed in men and women, respectively, assuming no change in salt intake over the entire period. The model suggests that the decline in salt intake since the 1950s has contributed to a non-negligible reduction in cardiovascular mortality.

SUBMITTER: Sugiyama T

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9506165 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.

Sugiyama Takehiro T Ikeda Nayu N Minowa Kazuko K Nishi Nobuo N

Nutrients 20220910 18

In Japan, a decrease in cardiovascular mortality has coincided with reduced population salt intake since the 1950s. The purpose of this study was to quantify the effect of reduced population salt intake on the long-term trends of cardiovascular mortality. Using government statistics and epidemiological study results in people of 20-69 years old from 1950 to 2017, including the National Health and Nutrition Survey, we developed a system dynamics model of age-specific cardiovascular mortality and ...[more]

PMID: 36145122

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Project description:ObjectiveReducing dietary salt intake is an essential population strategy for cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention, but evidence on healthcare costs and outcomes is limited in Japan. We aimed to conduct a pilot economic evaluation under hypothetical scenarios of applying the salt reduction policies of England to Japan.MethodsWe examined salt reduction policies in England: media health promotion campaigns, front-of-pack labeling, and voluntary and mandatory reformulation with best-case and worst-case policy cost scenarios. We assumed that these policies were conducted in Japan for 10 years from 2019. We used published data on epidemiology and healthcare expenditures in Japan and the costs and effects of salt reduction policies in England, and defined the benefits as a decrease in national medical expenditures on CVD. We developed a Markov cohort simulation model of the Japanese population. To estimate the annual net benefits of each policy over 10 years, we subtracted monitoring and policy costs from the benefits. We adopted a health sector perspective and a 2% discount rate.ResultsThe cumulative net benefit over 10 years was largest for mandatory reformulation (best case) at 2,015.1 million USD (with costs of USD 48.3 million and benefits of USD 2063.5 million), followed by voluntary reformulation (net benefit: USD 1,895.1 million, cost: USD 48.1 million, benefit: USD 1,943.2 million), mandatory reformulation (worst case, net benefit: USD 1,447.9 million, cost: USD 1,174.5 million, benefit: USD 2,622.3 million), labeling (net benefit: USD 159.5 million, cost: USD 91.6 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million), and a media campaign (net benefit: USD 140.5 million, cost: USD 110.5 million, benefit: USD 251.0 million). There was no change in the superiority or inferiority of policies when the uncertainty of model parameters was considered.ConclusionMandatory reformulation with the best-case cost scenario might be economically preferable to the other alternatives in Japan. In future research, domestic data on costs and effects of salt reduction policies should be incorporated for model refinement.

Project description:BackgroundIn Japan, a high-sodium diet is the most important dietary risk factor and is known to cause a range of health problems. This study aimed to forecast Japan's disability-adjusted life year (DALYs) for chronic diseases that would be associated with high-sodium diet in different future scenarios of salt intake. We modelled DALY forecast and alternative future scenarios of salt intake for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), chronic kidney diseases (CKDs), and stomach cancer (SC) from 2017 to 2040.MethodsWe developed a three-component model of disease-specific DALYs: a component on the changes in major behavioural and metabolic risk predictors including salt intake; a component on the income per person, educational attainment, and total fertility rate under 25 years; and an autoregressive integrated moving average model to capture the unexplained component correlated over time. Data on risk predictors were obtained from Japan's National Health and Nutrition Surveys and from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. To generate a reference forecast of disease-specific DALY rates for 2017-2040, we modelled the three diseases using the data for 1990-2016. Additionally, we generated better, moderate, and worse scenarios to evaluate the impact of change in salt intake on the DALY rate for the diseases.ResultsIn our reference forecast, the DALY rates across all ages were predicted to be stable for CVDs, continuously increasing for CKDs, and continuously decreasing for SC. Meanwhile, the age group-specific DALY rates for these three diseases were forecasted to decrease, with some exceptions. Except for the ≥70 age group, there were remarkable differences in DALY rates between scenarios, with the best scenario having the lowest DALY rates in 2040 for SC. This represents a wide scope of future trajectories by 2040 with a potential for tremendous decrease in SC burden.ConclusionsThe gap between scenarios provides some quantification of the range of policy impacts on future trajectories of salt intake. Even though we do not yet know the policy mix used to achieve these scenarios, the result that there can be differences between scenarios means that policies today can have a significant impact on the future DALYs.

Project description:The World Health Organization recommends salt reduction as a cost-effective intervention to prevent noncommunicable diseases. Salt-reduction interventions are best tailored to the local context, taking into consideration the varying baseline salt-intake levels, population's knowledge, attitude, and behaviors. Fundamental to reduction programs is the source of dietary salt-intake. In South Asian countries, there is a paucity of such baseline evidence around factors that contribute to community salt intake. Upon reviewing the electronic literature databases and government websites through March 31, 2021, we summarized dietary salt intake levels and aimed to identify major sources of sodium in the diet. Information on the current salt reduction strategies in eight South Asian countries were summarized, namely Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. One hundred twelve publications (out of identified 640) met our inclusion-exclusion criteria for full text review. Twenty-one studies were included in the review. Quality of the included studies was assessed using the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute assessment tool. The primary result revealed that mean salt intake of South Asian countries was approximately twice (10 g/day) compared to WHO recommended intake (< 5 g/day). The significant proportion of salt intake is derived from salt additions during cooking and/or discretionary use at table. In most South Asian countries, there is limited data on population sodium intake based on 24-h urinary methods and sources of dietary salt in diet. While salt reduction initiatives have been proposed in these countries, they are yet to be fully implemented and evaluated. Proven salt reduction strategies in high-income countries could possibly be replicated in South Asian countries; however, further community-health promotion studies are necessary to test the effectiveness and scalability of those strategies in the local context.

Dataset Information

Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.

Publications

Estimation of the Effect of Salt-Intake Reduction on Cardiovascular Mortality Decline between 1950 and 2017 in Japan: A Retrospective Simulation Study.

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