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A high-resolution flux-matrix model describes the spread of diseases in a spatial network and the effect of mitigation strategies.

ABSTRACT: Propagation of an epidemic across a spatial network of communities is described by a variant of the SIR model accompanied by an intercommunity infectivity matrix. This matrix is estimated from fluxes between communities, obtained from cell-phone tracking data recorded in the USA between March 2020 and February 2021. We apply this model to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by fitting just one global parameter representing the frequency of interaction between individuals. We find that the predicted infections agree reasonably well with the reported cases. We clearly see the effect of "shelter-in-place" policies introduced at the onset of the pandemic. Interestingly, a model with uniform transmission rates produces similar results, suggesting that the epidemic transmission was deeply influenced by air travel. We then study the effect of alternative mitigation policies, in particular restricting long-range travel. We find that this policy is successful in decreasing the epidemic size and slowing down the spread, but less effective than the shelter-in-place policy. This policy can result in a pulled wave of infections. We express its velocity and characterize the shape of the traveling front as a function of the epidemiological parameters. Finally, we discuss a policy of selectively constraining travel based on an edge-betweenness criterion.

SUBMITTER: Le Treut G

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9509367 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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A high-resolution flux-matrix model describes the spread of diseases in a spatial network and the effect of mitigation strategies.

Le Treut Guillaume G Huber Greg G Kamb Mason M Kawagoe Kyle K McGeever Aaron A Miller Jonathan J Pnini Reuven R Veytsman Boris B Yllanes David D

Scientific reports 20220924 1

Propagation of an epidemic across a spatial network of communities is described by a variant of the SIR model accompanied by an intercommunity infectivity matrix. This matrix is estimated from fluxes between communities, obtained from cell-phone tracking data recorded in the USA between March 2020 and February 2021. We apply this model to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by fitting just one global parameter representing the frequency of interaction between individuals. We find that the predicted infectio ...[more]

PMID: 36153391

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Project description:Magnetotactic bacteria (MTB) swim along magnetic field lines in water. They are found in aquatic habitats throughout the world, yet knowledge of their spatial and temporal distribution remains limited. To help remedy this, we took MTB-bearing sediment from a natural pond, mixed the thoroughly homogenized sediment into two replicate aquaria, and then counted three dominant MTB morphotypes (coccus, spirillum, and rod-shaped MTB cells) at a high spatiotemporal sampling resolution: 36 discrete points in replicate aquaria were sampled every ∼30 days over 198 days. Population centers of the MTB coccus and MTB spirillum morphotypes moved in continual flux, yet they consistently inhabited separate locations, displaying significant anticorrelation. Rod-shaped MTB were initially concentrated toward the northern end of the aquaria, but at the end of the experiment, they were most densely populated toward the south. The finding that the total number of MTB cells increased over time during the experiment argues that population reorganization arose from relative changes in cell division and death and not from migration. The maximum net growth rates were 10, 3, and 1 doublings day-1 and average net growth rates were 0.24, 0.11, and 0.02 doublings day-1 for MTB cocci, MTB spirilla, and rod-shaped MTB, respectively; minimum growth rates for all three morphotypes were -0.03 doublings day-1 Our results suggest that MTB cocci and MTB spirilla occupy distinctly different niches: their horizontal positioning in sediment is anticorrelated and under constant flux.IMPORTANCE Little is known about the horizontal distribution of magnetotactic bacteria in sediment or how the distribution changes over time. We therefore measured three dominant magnetotactic bacterium morphotypes at 36 places in two replicate aquaria each month for 7 months. We found that the spatial positioning of population centers changed over time and that the two most abundant morphotypes (MTB cocci and MTB spirilla) occupied distinctly different niches in the aquaria. Maximum and average growth and death rates were quantified for each of the three morphotypes based on 72 sites that were measured six times. The findings provided novel insight into the differential behavior of noncultured magnetotactic bacteria.

Dataset Information

A high-resolution flux-matrix model describes the spread of diseases in a spatial network and the effect of mitigation strategies.

Publications

A high-resolution flux-matrix model describes the spread of diseases in a spatial network and the effect of mitigation strategies.

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