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Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

ABSTRACT: To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer-specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10-year HCC-CFR, HCC-related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months], semiannual [6 months], or quarterly [3 months]) and imaging modalities (ultrasound [US] or magnetic resonance imaging [MRI]) in various annual incidences (0.2%, 0.4%, or 1.5%). Compared to no surveillance, 6-month US reduced the 10-year HCC-CFR from 77% to 46%. With annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, the model predicted 281, 565, and 2059 fewer HCC-related deaths, respectively, and 187, 374, and 1356 fewer total deaths per 100,000 screened patients, respectively. Combining alpha-fetoprotein screening to 6-month US led to 32, 63, and 230 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients for annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 3-month US reduced cancer-related mortality by 14%, predicting 61, 123, and 446 fewer HCC-related deaths per 100,000 screened patients with annual incidences of 0.2%, 0.4%, and 1.5%, respectively. Compared to 6-month US, 6-month MRI (-17%) and 12-month MRI (-6%) reduced HCC-related mortality. Compared to 6-month US, overall mortality reductions ranged from -0.1% to -1.3% when using 3-month US or MRI. A US surveillance interval of 6 months improves HCC-related and overall mortality compared to no surveillance. A shorter US interval or using MRI could reduce HCC-CFR and HCC-related mortality, with a modest effect on overall mortality.

SUBMITTER: Ningarhari M

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9512473 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

Ningarhari Massih M Mourad Abbas A Delacôte Claire C Ntandja Wandji Line-Carolle LC Lassailly Guillaume G Louvet Alexandre A Louvet Alexandre A Dharancy Sébastien S Mathurin Philippe P Deuffic-Burban Sylvie S

Hepatology communications 20220825 10

To validate cancer screening programs, experts recommend estimating effects on case fatality rates (CFRs) and cancer-specific mortality. This study evaluates hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening in patients with cirrhosis for those outcomes using a modeling approach. We designed a Markov model to assess 10-year HCC-CFR, HCC-related, and overall mortality per 100,000 screened patients with compensated cirrhosis. The model evaluates different HCC surveillance intervals (none, annual [12 months ...[more]

PMID: 36004703

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Project description:Background & aimsScreening patients with cirrhosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been recommended. We conducted a matched case-control study within the US Veterans Affairs (VA) health care system to determine whether screening by abdominal ultrasonography (USS) and/or by measuring serum level of α-fetoprotein (AFP) was associated with decreased cancer-related mortality in patients with cirrhosis.MethodsWe defined cases (n = 238) as patients with cirrhosis who died of HCC from January 1, 2013 through August 31, 2015 and had been in VA care with a diagnosis of cirrhosis for at least 4 years before the diagnosis of HCC. We matched each case to 1 control (n = 238), defined as a patient with cirrhosis who did not die of HCC and had been in VA care for at least 4 years before the date of the matched case's HCC diagnosis. Controls were matched to cases by year of cirrhosis diagnosis, race and ethnicity, age, sex, etiology of cirrhosis, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease score, and VA medical center. We identified all USS and serum AFP tests performed within 4 years before the date of HCC diagnosis in cases or the equivalent index date in controls and determined by chart extraction (blinded to case or control status) whether these tests were performed for screening.ResultsThere were no significant differences between cases and controls in the proportions of patients who underwent screening USS (52.9% vs 54.2%), screening measurement of serum AFP (74.8% vs 73.5%), screening USS or measurement of serum AFP (81.1% vs 79.4%), or screening USS and measurement of serum AFP (46.6% vs 48.3%) within 4 years before the index date, with or without adjusting for potential confounders. There also was no difference in receipt of these screening tests within 1, 2, or 3 years before the index date.ConclusionsIn a matched case-control study of the VA health care system, we found that screening patients with cirrhosis for HCC by USS, measurement of serum AFP, either test, or both tests was not associated with decreased HCC-related mortality. We encourage additional case-control studies to evaluate the efficacy of screening for HCC in other health care systems, in which available records are sufficiently detailed to enable identification of the indication for USS and AFP tests.

Project description:Background & aimsHepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening of patients with cirrhosis is recommended by professional societies to increase detection of early stage tumors and survival, but is underused in clinical practice.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of 13,714 patients diagnosed with HCC from 2003 through 2013 included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare database. We characterized receipt of HCC screening in the 3 years before HCC diagnosis using mutually exclusive categories (consistent vs inconsistent vs no screening) and the proportion of time covered with screening. Correlates for screening receipt were assessed using a multivariable 2-part regression model. We examined the association between screening receipt and early detection of tumors using multivariable logistic regression. We evaluated associations between screening receipt and overall survival using a Cox proportional hazards model, after adjustments for effects of lead-time bias and length-time bias on survival rate estimators.ResultsMost patients with cirrhosis (51.1%) did not receive any screening in the 3 years before a diagnosis of HCC, and only 6.8% of patients underwent consistent annual screening. The proportion with consistent screening increased from 5.4% in 2003 to 2006 to 8.8% in 2011 to 2013 (P < .001). The mean proportion of time covered was 13.4% overall, which increased from 11.7% in 2003 to 2006 to 15.2% in 2011 to 2013. Receipt of consistent screening was associated with detection of early stage tumors (odds ratio, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.68-2.33) and a reduced risk of death after correction for lead-time bias (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.83). Inconsistent screening was associated with a slightly smaller increase in early detection of HCC (odds ratio, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.20-1.43) and a reduced risk of death (hazard ratio, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.83-0.90). After correction for lead- and length-time biases, higher proportions of patients with consistent (23%; 95% CI, 21%-25%) and inconsistent screening (19%; 95% CI, 19%-20%) survived for 3 years compared with patients without screening (13%; 95% CI, 12%-14%).ConclusionsIn an analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program-Medicare database, we found HCC screening to be underused for patients with cirrhosis. This contributes to detection of liver tumors at later stages and shorter times of survival. However, the proportion of patients screened for HCC has increased over time.

Project description:Background & aimsSurveillance of patients with cirrhosis increases early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and prolongs survival. However, its effectiveness is limited by underuse, particularly among racial/ethnic minorities and individuals of low socioeconomic status. We compared the effectiveness of mailed outreach strategies, with and without patient navigation, in increasing the numbers of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surveillance for HCC in a racially diverse and socioeconomically disadvantaged cohort.MethodsWe performed a prospective study of patients with documented or suspected cirrhosis at a large safety-net health system from December 2014 through March 2016. Patients were assigned randomly (1:1:1) to groups that received mailed invitations for an ultrasound screening examination (n = 600), mailed invitations for an ultrasound screening examination and patient navigation (barrier assessment and motivational education for patients who declined screening; n = 600), or usual care (visit-based screening; n = 600). Patients who did not respond to outreach invitations within 2 weeks received up to 3 reminder telephone calls. The primary outcome was completion of abdominal imaging within 6 months of randomization.ResultsBaseline characteristics were similar among groups. Cirrhosis was documented, based on International Classification of Diseases, 9th revision, codes, for 79.6% of patients, and suspected, based on noninvasive markers of fibrosis, for 20.4%. In an intent-to-treat analysis, significantly greater proportions of patients who received the mailed invitation and navigation (47.2%) or the mailed invitation alone (44.5%) underwent HCC screening than patients who received usual care (24.3%) (P < .001 for both comparisons). However, screening rates did not differ significantly between outreach the outreach groups (P = .25). The effects of the outreach program were consistent in all subgroups, including Caucasian vs non-Caucasian race, documented vs suspected cirrhosis, Child-Pugh A vs B cirrhosis, and receipt of gastroenterology care.ConclusionsIn a prospective study, we found outreach strategies to double the percentage of patients with cirrhosis who underwent ultrasound screening for HCC. However, adding patient navigation to telephone reminders provided no significant additional benefit. ClinicalTrials.gov no: NCT02312817.

Dataset Information

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

Publications

Benefits of tailored hepatocellular carcinoma screening in patients with cirrhosis on cancer-specific and overall mortality: A modeling approach.

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