Dataset Information

Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.

ABSTRACT: In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections (the Poisson parameters), provides a good tool to study theoretical and real scenarios.

SUBMITTER: Lopez Vazquez PC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9521938 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.

López Vázquez Pablo Carlos PC Sánchez González Gilberto G Martínez Ortega Jorge J Arroyo Duarte Renato Salomón RS

PloS one 20220929 9

In this paper we model the spreading of the SARS-CoV-2 in Mexico by introducing a new stochastic approximation constructed from first principles, where the number of new infected individuals caused by a single infectious individual per unit time (a day), is a random variable of a time-dependent Poisson distribution. The model, structured on the basis of a Latent-Infectious-(Recovered or Deceased) (LI(RD)) compartmental approximation together with a modulation of the mean number of new infections ...[more]

PMID: 36173956

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Project description:BackgroundOver the last two decades, lipid compartments (liposomes, lipid-coated droplets) have been extensively used as in vitro "minimal" cell models. In particular, simple and complex biomolecular reactions have been carried out inside these self-assembled micro- and nano-sized compartments, leading to the synthesis of RNA and functional proteins inside liposomes. Despite this experimental progress, a detailed physical understanding of the underlying dynamics is missing. In particular, the combination of solute compartmentalization, reactivity and stochastic effects has not yet been clarified. A combination of experimental and computational approaches can reveal interesting mechanisms governing the behavior of micro compartmentalized systems, in particular by highlighting the intrinsic stochastic diversity within a population of "synthetic cells".MethodsIn this context, we have developed a computational platform called ENVIRONMENT suitable for studying the stochastic time evolution of reacting lipid compartments. This software - which implements a Gillespie Algorithm - is an improvement over a previous program that simulated the stochastic time evolution of homogeneous, fixed-volume, chemically reacting systems, extending it to more general conditions in which a collection of similar such systems interact and change over the course of time. In particular, our approach is focused on elucidating the role of randomness in the time behavior of chemically reacting lipid compartments, such as micelles, vesicles or micro emulsions, in regimes where random fluctuations due to the stochastic nature of reacting events can lead an open system towards unexpected time evolutions.ResultsThis paper analyses the so-called Ribocell (RNA-based cell) model. It consists in a hypothetical minimal cell based on a self-replicating minimum RNA genome coupled with a self-reproducing lipid vesicle compartment. This model assumes the existence of two ribozymes, one able to catalyze the conversion of molecular precursors into lipids and the second able to replicate RNA strands. The aim of this contribution is to explore the feasibility of this hypothetical minimal cell. By deterministic kinetic analysis, the best external conditions to observe synchronization between genome self-replication and vesicle membrane reproduction are determined, while its robustness to random fluctuations is investigated using stochastic simulations, and then discussed.

Dataset Information

Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.

Publications

Stochastic epidemiological model: Simulations of the SARS-CoV-2 spreading in Mexico.

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