The evaluation of preventive and control measures on congenital syphilis in Guangdong Province, China: a time series modeling study.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

To evaluate the effectiveness of preventive and control measures for congenital syphilis (CS) implemented since 2012 in Guangdong Province, China, and assess the epidemic trend in the near future.

Methods

The interrupted time series analysis was conducted to compare changes in slope and level of CS notification rate from 2005 to 2020 in Guangdong Province and its three regions with different economic developmental levels. The ARIMA model was established to predict the new CS case number of Guangdong Province in 2021.

Results

A total of 12,687 CS cases were reported from 2005 to 2020. The CS notification rate of the province had been increasing until 2012 (128.55 cases per 100,000 live births) and then been decreasing constantly, hitting the lowest point in 202

SUBMITTER: Tang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9522686 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature