Combining and comparing regional SARS-CoV-2 epidemic dynamics in Italy: Bayesian meta-analysis of compartmental models and global sensitivity analysis.

ABSTRACT: During autumn 2020, Italy faced a second important SARS-CoV-2 epidemic wave. We explored the time pattern of the instantaneous reproductive number, R ₀(t), and estimated the prevalence of infections by region from August to December calibrating SIRD models on COVID-19-related deaths, fixing at values from literature Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) and average infection duration. A Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) was performed on the regional SIRD models. Then, we used Bayesian meta-analysis and meta-regression to combine and compare the regional results and investigate their heterogeneity. The meta-analytic R ₀(t) curves were similar in the Northern and Central regions, while a less peaked curve was estimated for the South. The maximum R

SUBMITTER: Cereda G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9523586 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature