An expert judgment model to predict early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

ABSTRACT: From February to May 2020, experts in the modeling of infectious disease provided quantitative predictions and estimates of trends in the emerging COVID-19 pandemic in a series of 13 surveys. Data on existing transmission patterns were sparse when the pandemic began, but experts synthesized information available to them to provide quantitative, judgment-based assessments of the current and future state of the pandemic. We aggregated expert predictions into a single "linear pool" by taking an equally weighted average of their probabilistic statements. At a time when few computational models made public estimates or predictions about the pandemic, expert judgment provided (a) falsifiable predictions of short- and long-term pandemic outcomes related to reported COVID-19 cases, hospitalization

SUBMITTER: McAndrew T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9534428 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature