BAYESIAN MITIGATION OF SPATIAL COARSENING FOR A HAWKES MODEL APPLIED TO GUNFIRE, WILDFIRE AND VIRAL CONTAGION.

ABSTRACT: Self-exciting spatiotemporal Hawkes processes have found increasing use in the study of large-scale public health threats, ranging from gun violence and earthquakes to wildfires and viral contagion. Whereas many such applications feature locational uncertainty, that is, the exact spatial positions of individual events are unknown, most Hawkes model analyses to date have ignored spatial coarsening present in the data. Three particular 21st century public health crises-urban gun violence, rural wildfires and global viral spread-present qualitatively and quantitatively varying uncertainty regimes that exhibit: (a) different collective magnitudes of spatial coarsening, (b) uniform and mixed magnitude coarsening, (c) differently shaped uncertainty regions and-less orthodox-(d) locational data d

SUBMITTER: Holbrook AJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9536472 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature