Quantifying the COVID-19 endgame: Is a new normal within reach?

ABSTRACT: Eradication of COVID-19 is out of reach. Are we close to a "new normal" in which people can leave behind restrictive non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) yet face a tolerable burden of disease? The answer depends on the ongoing risks versus communities' tolerance for those risks. Using a detailed model of the COVID-19 pandemic spanning 93 countries, we estimate the biological and behavioral factors determining the risks and responses, and project the likely course of COVID-19. Infection fatality rates have fallen significantly due to vaccination, prior infections, better treatments, and the less severe Omicron variant. Yet based on their estimated tolerance for deaths, most nations are not ready to live with COVID-19 without any NPIs. Across the world the increased transmissibility of O

SUBMITTER: Rahmandad H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9538382 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature