Dataset Information

Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

We aimed to develop models to predict new-onset overactive bladder in 5 years using a large prospective cohort of the general population.

Methods

This is a secondary analysis of a longitudinal cohort study in Japan. The baseline characteristics were measured between 2008 and 2010, with follow-ups every 5 years. We included subjects without overactive bladder at baseline and with follow-up data 5 years later. Overactive bladder was assessed using the overactive bladder symptom score. Baseline characteristics (demographics, health behaviors, comorbidities, and overactive bladder symptom scores) and blood test data were included as predictors. We developed two competing prediction models for each sex based on logistic regression with penalized likelihood (LASSO). We chose the best model separately for men and women after evaluating models' performance in terms of discrimination and calibration using an internal validation via 200 bootstrap resamples and a temporal validation.

Results

We analyzed 7218 participants (male: 2238, female: 4980). The median age was 60 and 55 years, and the number of new-onset overactive bladder was 223 (10.0%) and 288 (5.8%) per 5 years in males and females, respectively. The in-sample estimates for C-statistic, calibration intercept, and slope for the best performing models were 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.80), 0.28 and 1.15 for males, and 0.77 (95% confidence interval 0.74-0.80), 0.20 and 1.08 for females. Internal and temporal validation gave broadly similar estimates of performance, indicating low optimism.

Conclusion

We developed risk prediction models for new-onset overactive bladder among men and women with good predictive ability.

SUBMITTER: Funada S

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9546153 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study.

Funada Satoshi S Luo Yan Y Yoshioka Takashi T Setoh Kazuya K Tabara Yasuharu Y Negoro Hiromitsu H Yoshimura Koji K Matsuda Fumihiko F Efthimiou Orestis O Ogawa Osamu O Furukawa Toshi A TA Kobayashi Takashi T Akamatsu Shusuke S

International journal of urology : official journal of the Japanese Urological Association 20220407 7

<h4>Objectives</h4>We aimed to develop models to predict new-onset overactive bladder in 5 years using a large prospective cohort of the general population.<h4>Methods</h4>This is a secondary analysis of a longitudinal cohort study in Japan. The baseline characteristics were measured between 2008 and 2010, with follow-ups every 5 years. We included subjects without overactive bladder at baseline and with follow-up data 5 years later. Overactive bladder was assessed using the overactive bladder s ...[more]

PMID: 35393696

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Project description:BackgroundMajor incidents correspond to any situation where the location, number, severity, or type of casualties requires extraordinary resources. Major incident management must be efficient to save as many lives as possible. As any paramedic or emergency medical technician may unexpectedly have to respond to major incidents, regular training is mandatory. Those trainings usually include simulations. The vast majority of major incident simulations are limited by the fact that simulated patients do not evolve during the simulation, regardless of the time elapsed and treatment decisions. Therefore, most simulations fail to incorporate the critical temporal effect of decision-making.ObjectiveThis study aimed to develop and validate a simplified mathematical model of physiology, capable of plausibly simulating the real-time evolution of several injuries.MethodsA modified version of the user-centered design framework, including a relevance, development, and validation phase, was used to define the development process of the physiological model. A 12-member design and development team was established, including prehospital physicians, paramedics, and computer scientists. To determine whether the developed model was clinically realistic, 15 experienced professionals working in the prehospital field participated in the validation phase. They were asked to rate clinical and physiological parameters according to a 5-point Likert scale ranging from 1 (impossible) to 5 (absolutely realistic).ResultsThe design and development team led to the development of the HUMAn model (Human is an Uncomplicated Model of Anatomy). During the relevance phase, the team defined the needed features of the model: clinically realistic, able to compute the evolution of prehospital vital signs, yet simple enough to allow real-time computation for several simulated patients on regular computers or tablets. During the development phase, iterations led to the development of a heart-lung-brain interaction model coupled to functional blocks representing the main anatomical body parts. During the validation phase, the evolution of nine simulated patients presenting pathologies devised to test the different systems and their interactions was assessed. Overall, clinical parameters of all patients had a median rating of 5 (absolutely realistic; IQR 4-5). Most (n=52, 96%) individual clinical parameters had a median rating of 5, the remainder (n=2, 4%) being rated 4. Overall physiological parameters of all patients had a median rating of 5 (absolutely realistic; IQR 3-5). The majority of individual physiological parameters (n=43, 79%) had a median rating of 5, with (n=9, 17%) rated 4, and only (n=2 ,4%) rated 3.ConclusionsA simplified model of trauma patient evolution was successfully created and deemed clinically realistic by experienced clinicians. This model should now be included in computer-based simulations and its impact on the teaching of major incident management assessed through randomized trials.

Dataset Information

Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study.

Objectives

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Development and validation of prediction model for incident overactive bladder: The Nagahama study.

Similar Datasets

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