Winter warming offsets one half of the spring warming effects on leaf unfolding.

ABSTRACT: Winter temperature-related chilling and spring temperature-related forcing are two major environmental cues shaping the leaf-out date of temperate species. To what degree insufficient chilling caused by winter warming would slow phenological responses to spring warming remains unclear. Using 27,071 time series of leaf-out dates for 16 tree species in Europe, we constructed a phenological model based on the linear or exponential function between the chilling accumulation (CA) and forcing requirements (FR) of leaf-out. We further used the phenological model to quantify the relative contributions of chilling and forcing on past and future spring phenological change. The results showed that the delaying effect of decreased chilling on the leaf-out date was prevalent in natural conditions, as m

SUBMITTER: Wang H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9546158 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature