Predicting Kidney Failure, Cardiovascular Disease and Death in Advanced CKD Patients.
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ABSTRACT: Introduction
Predicting the timing and occurrence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular events, and death among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is clinically useful and relevant. We aimed to externally validate a recently developed CKD G4+ risk calculator for these outcomes and to assess its potential clinical impact in guiding vascular access placement.Methods
We included 1517 patients from the European Quality (EQUAL) study, a European multicentre prospective cohort study of nephrology-referred advanced CKD patients aged ≥65 years. Model performance was assessed based on discrimination and calibration. Potential clinical utility for timing of referral for vascular access placement was studied with diagnostic measures and decision curve analysis (DCA).Results
The model showed a good discrimination for KRT and "death after KRT," with 2-year concordance (C) statistics of 0.74 and 0.76, respectively. Discrimination for cardiovascular events (2-year C-statistic: 0.70) and overall death (2-year C-statistic: 0.61) was poorer. Calibration was fairly accurate. Decision curves illustrated that using the model to guide vascular access referral would generally lead to less unused arteriovenous fistulas (AVFs) than following estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) thresholds.Conclusion
This study shows moderate to good predictive performance of the model in an older cohort of nephrology-referred patients with advanced CKD. Using the model to guide referral for vascular access placement has potential in combating unnecessary vascular surgeries.
SUBMITTER: Ramspek CL
PROVIDER: S-EPMC9546766 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Predicting Kidney Failure, Cardiovascular Disease and Death in Advanced CKD Patients.
Ramspek Chava L CL Boekee Rosemarijn R Evans Marie M Heimburger Olof O Snead Charlotte M CM Caskey Fergus J FJ Torino Claudia C Porto Gaetana G Szymczak Maciej M Krajewska Magdalena M Drechsler Christiane C Wanner Christoph C Chesnaye Nicholas C NC Jager Kitty J KJ Dekker Friedo W FW Snoeijs Maarten G J MGJ Rotmans Joris I JI van Diepen Merel M
Kidney international reports 20220802 10
<h4>Introduction</h4>Predicting the timing and occurrence of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), cardiovascular events, and death among patients with advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD) is clinically useful and relevant. We aimed to externally validate a recently developed CKD G4+ risk calculator for these outcomes and to assess its potential clinical impact in guiding vascular access placement.<h4>Methods</h4>We included 1517 patients from the European Quality (EQUAL) study, a European multicen ...[more]
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Project description:Background and objectivesUromodulin is exclusively produced by tubular epithelial cells and released into urine and serum. Higher serum uromodulin has been associated with lower risk for kidney failure in Chinese patients with CKD and with lower risk for mortality in the elderly and in patients undergoing coronary angiography. We hypothesized that lower serum uromodulin is associated with mortality, cardiovascular events, and kidney failure in white patients with CKD.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsWe measured serum uromodulin in 5143 participants enrolled in the German CKD (GCKD) study. The associations of baseline serum uromodulin with all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE; a composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, or incident peripheral vascular disease), and kidney failure (dialysis or transplantation) were evaluated using multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression analyses in a cohort study design, adjusting for demographics, eGFR, albuminuria, cardiovascular risk factors, and medication.ResultsThe mean age of participants was 60±12 years, 60% were male. Mean serum uromodulin concentration was 98±60 ng/ml, eGFR was 49±18 ml/min per 1.73 m2, and 78% had eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2. Participants in lower serum uromodulin quartiles had lower eGFR and higher albuminuria, prevalence of diabetes, hypertension, coronary artery disease, and more frequent history of stroke at baseline. During a follow-up of 4 years, 335 participants died, 417 developed MACE, and 229 developed kidney failure. In multivariable analysis, the highest serum uromodulin quartile was associated with lower hazard for mortality (hazard ratio [HR], 0.57; 95% CI, 0.38 to 0.87), MACE (HR, 0.63; 95% CI, 0.45 to 0.90), and kidney failure (HR, 0.24; 95% CI, 0.10 to 0.55) compared with the lowest quartile.ConclusionsHigher serum uromodulin is independently associated with lower risk for mortality, cardiovascular events, and kidney failure in white patients with CKD.Clinical trial registry name and registration numberDeutsches Register für Klinische Studien (DRKS; German national database of clinical studies), DRKS00003971.
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Project description:Background and objectivesThe kidney failure risk equation is a clinical tool commonly used for prediction of progression from CKD to kidney failure. The kidney failure risk equation's accuracy in advanced CKD and whether this varies by CKD etiology remains unknown. This study examined the kidney failure risk equation's discrimination and calibration at 2 and 5 years among a large tertiary care population with advanced CKD from heterogeneous etiologies.Design, setting, participants, & measurementsThis retrospective cohort study included 1293 patients with advanced CKD (median eGFR 15 ml/min per 1.73 m2) referred to the Ottawa Hospital Multi-Care Kidney Clinic between 2010 and 2016, with follow-up clinical data available through 2018. Four-variable kidney failure risk equation scores for 2- and 5-year risks of progression to kidney failure (defined as dialysis or kidney transplantation) were calculated upon initial referral and correlated with the subsequent observed kidney failure incidence within these time frames. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots were used to measure the discrimination and calibration of the kidney failure risk equation both in the overall advanced CKD population and by CKD etiology: diabetic kidney disease, hypertensive nephrosclerosis, GN, polycystic kidney disease, and other. Pairwise comparisons of the receiver operating characteristic curves by CKD etiology were performed to compare kidney failure risk equation discrimination.ResultsThe kidney failure risk equation provided adequate to excellent discrimination in identifying patients with CKD likely to progress to kidney failure at the 2- and 5-year time points both overall (2-year area under the curve, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.81 to 0.85; 5-year area under the curve, 0.81; 95% confidence interval, 0.77 to 0.84) and across CKD etiologies. The kidney failure risk equation displayed adequate calibration at the 2- and 5-year time points both overall and across CKD etiologies (Hosmer-Lemeshow P≥0.05); however, the predicted risks of kidney failure were higher than the observed risks across CKD etiologies with the exception of polycystic kidney disease.ConclusionsThe kidney failure risk equation provides adequate discrimination and calibration in advanced CKD and across CKD etiologies.
| S-EPMC7536763 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rationale & objectiveThe use of renin-angiotensin system (RAS) inhibitors is standard of care in people with early to moderate chronic kidney disease (CKD). Less is known regarding the efficacy of RAS inhibitors in very advanced CKD. In this study, we describe patterns of use of RAS inhibitors and associations of these patterns of use with risk for CKD progression and mortality in patients with advanced CKD.Study designPropensity-matched cohort study.Settings & participantsWe identified 678 participants who were enrolled in the multicenter Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study with estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 at the baseline visit.ExposureUse of RAS inhibitors within the first year after the baseline visit, characterized by 4 patterns of use: never users, always users, dynamic users, and new users.OutcomesProgression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and all-cause mortality.Analytical approachWe generated propensity scores and matched participants in the always users group with a 1:1 ratio with a participant from the other 3 groups, matching by age, sex, race, diabetes, hypertension, systolic blood pressure, eGFR, urinary protein-creatinine ratio, and serum potassium level. Cox models were used to test the association of patterns of RAS inhibitor use with risk for kidney failure and death.ResultsOf the 678 participants with eGFRs < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2, 57% were identified as always users of RAS inhibitors during the 1 year, 23% as never users, 13% as dynamic users, and 7% as new users. We found no differences in risk for ESRD across patterns of RAS inhibitor use (never users [HR, 1.09; 95% CI, 0.71-1.67], dynamic users [HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 0.83-2.55], new users [HR, 0.78; 95% CI, 0.33-1.84] vs the always users reference group). Similarly, there was no association of patterns of RAS inhibitor use with death (never users [HR, 1.02; CI, 0.74-1.40], dynamic users [HR, 1.23; 95% CI, 0.80-1.90], new users [HR, 1.10; 95% CI, 0.63-1.92] vs always users).LimitationsObservational study.ConclusionsUse of RAS inhibitors in patients with eGFRs < 30 mL/min/1.73 m2 is heterogeneous..We found no difference in risk for progression to ESRD or mortality across patterns of RAS inhibitor use. Further research is required to identify optimal prescribing strategies of RAS inhibitors during advanced stages of CKD.
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Project description:BackgroundVarious prediction models have been developed to predict the risk of kidney failure in patients with CKD. However, guideline-recommended models have yet to be compared head to head, their validation in patients with advanced CKD is lacking, and most do not account for competing risks.MethodsTo externally validate 11 existing models of kidney failure, taking the competing risk of death into account, we included patients with advanced CKD from two large cohorts: the European Quality Study (EQUAL), an ongoing European prospective, multicenter cohort study of older patients with advanced CKD, and the Swedish Renal Registry (SRR), an ongoing registry of nephrology-referred patients with CKD in Sweden. The outcome of the models was kidney failure (defined as RRT-treated ESKD). We assessed model performance with discrimination and calibration.ResultsThe study included 1580 patients from EQUAL and 13,489 patients from SRR. The average c statistic over the 11 validated models was 0.74 in EQUAL and 0.80 in SRR, compared with 0.89 in previous validations. Most models with longer prediction horizons overestimated the risk of kidney failure considerably. The 5-year Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) overpredicted risk by 10%-18%. The four- and eight-variable 2-year KFRE and the 4-year Grams model showed excellent calibration and good discrimination in both cohorts.ConclusionsSome existing models can accurately predict kidney failure in patients with advanced CKD. KFRE performed well for a shorter time frame (2 years), despite not accounting for competing events. Models predicting over a longer time frame (5 years) overestimated risk because of the competing risk of death. The Grams model, which accounts for the latter, is suitable for longer-term predictions (4 years).
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Project description:BackgroundOne of the key components of multidisciplinary CKD clinics is education; however, kidney disease knowledge among patients followed in these clinics is not routinely measured.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to determine objective and perceived kidney disease knowledge and patient characteristics associated with knowledge among patients followed in a multi-care kidney clinic.DesignThis is a cross-sectional survey study.SettingThis study was conducted in a multi-care kidney clinic in Ontario, Canada.PatientsPatients who did not speak English, who were unable to read due to significant vision impairment, or who had a known history of dementia or significant cognitive impairment were excluded.MeasurementsPerceived kidney disease knowledge was evaluated using a previously validated 9-item survey (PiKS). Each question on the perceived knowledge survey had 4 possible responses, ranging from "I don't know anything" (1) to "I know a lot" (4). Objective kidney disease knowledge was evaluated using a previously validated survey (KiKS).MethodsThe association between patient characteristics and perceived and objective kidney disease knowledge was determined using linear regression.ResultsA total of 125 patients were included, 57% were male, the mean (SD) age and eGFR were 66 (13) years and 16 (5.9) mL/min/1.73 m2, respectively. The median (IQR) objective and perceived knowledge survey scores were 19 out of 27 (16, 21) and 2.9 out of 4 (2.4, 3.2), respectively. Only 25% of patients answered correctly that CKD can be associated with no symptoms, and 64% of patients identified correctly that the kidneys make urine. More than 60% of patients perceived themselves to know nothing or only a little about medications that help or hurt the kidney. Older age was independently associated with lower perceived and objective knowledge, but sex, income, and educational attainment were not.LimitationsThis is a single-center study. Cognitive impairment was based on the treating team's informal assessment or prior documentation in the chart; formal cognitive testing was not performed as part of this study.ConclusionsDespite resource-intensive care, CKD knowledge of patients followed in a multidisciplinary clinic was found to be modest. Whether enhanced educational strategies can improve knowledge and whether increasing knowledge improves patient outcomes warrants further study.
| S-EPMC7016305 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Rationale & objectiveChoosing from multiple kidney failure treatment modalities can create decisional conflict, but little is known about this experience before decision implementation. We explored decisional conflict about treatment for kidney failure and its associated patient characteristics in the context of advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD).Study designCross-sectional study.Setting & participantsAdults (N = 427) who had advanced CKD, received nephrology care in Pennsylvania-based clinics, and had no history of dialysis or transplantation.PredictorsParticipants' sociodemographic, physical health, nephrology care/knowledge, and psychosocial characteristics.OutcomesParticipants' results on the Sure of myself; Understand information; Risk-benefit ratio; Encouragement (SURE) screening test for decisional conflict (no decisional conflict vs decisional conflict).Analytical approachWe used multivariable logistic regression to quantify associations between aforementioned participant characteristics and decisional conflict. We repeated analyses among a subgroup of participants at highest risk of kidney failure within 2 years.ResultsMost (76%) participants reported treatment-related decisional conflict. Participant characteristics associated with lower odds of decisional conflict included complete satisfaction with patient-kidney team treatment discussions (OR, 0.16; 95% CI, 0.03-0.88; P = 0.04), attendance of treatment education classes (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.16-0.90; P = 0.03), and greater treatment-related decision self-efficacy (OR, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.94-0.99; P < 0.01). Sensitivity analyses showed a similarly high prevalence of decisional conflict (73%) and again demonstrated associations of class attendance (OR, 0.26; 95% CI, 0.07-0.96; P = 0.04) and decision self-efficacy (OR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.91-0.99; P = 0.03) with decisional conflict.LimitationsSingle-health system study.ConclusionsDecisional conflict was highly prevalent regardless of CKD progression risk. Findings suggest efforts to reduce decisional conflict should focus on minimizing the mismatch between clinical practice guidelines and patient-reported engagement in treatment preparation, facilitating patient-kidney team treatment discussions, and developing treatment education programs and decision support interventions that incorporate decision self-efficacy-enhancing strategies.
| S-EPMC9449857 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Background In participants with concomitant chronic coronary disease and advanced chronic kidney disease (CKD), the effect of treatment strategies on the timing of dialysis initiation is not well characterized. Methods and Results In ISCHEMIA-CKD (International Study of Comparative Health Effectiveness With Medical and Invasive Approaches-Chronic Kidney Disease), 777 participants with advanced CKD and moderate or severe ischemia were randomized to either an initial invasive or conservative management strategy. Herein, we compare the proportion of randomized participants with non-dialysis-requiring CKD at baseline (n=362) who initiated dialysis and compare the time to dialysis initiation between invasive versus conservative management arms. Using multivariable Cox regression analysis, we also sought to identify the effect of invasive versus conservative chronic coronary disease management strategies on dialysis initiation. At a median follow-up of 23 months (25th-75th interquartile range, 14-32 months), dialysis was initiated in 18.9% of participants (36/190) in the invasive strategy and 16.9% of participants (29/172) in the conservative strategy (P=0.22). The median time to dialysis initiation was 6.0 months (interquartile range, 3.0-16.0 months) in the invasive group and 18.2 months (interquartile range, 12.2-25.0 months) in the conservative group (P=0.004), with no difference in procedural acute kidney injury rates between the groups (7.8% versus 5.4%; P=0.26). Baseline clinical factors associated with earlier dialysis initiation were lower baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (hazard ratio [HR] associated with 5-unit decrease, 2.08 [95% CI, 1.72-2.56]; P<0.001), diabetes (HR, 2.30 [95% CI, 1.28-4.13]; P=0.005), hypertension (HR, 7.97 [95% CI, 1.09-58.21]; P=0.041), and Hispanic ethnicity (HR, 2.34 [95% CI, 1.22-4.47]; P=0.010). Conclusions In participants with non-dialysis-requiring CKD in ISCHEMIA-CKD, randomization to an invasive chronic coronary disease management strategy (relative to a conservative chronic coronary disease management strategy) is associated with an accelerated time to initiation of maintenance dialysis for kidney failure. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT01985360.
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Project description:BackgroundSerum uric acid concentrations increase in chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may lead to tubular injury, endothelial dysfunction, oxidative stress, and intrarenal inflammation. Whether uric acid concentrations are associated with kidney failure and death in CKD is unknown.Study designProspective observational cohort study.Settings & participants3,885 individuals with CKD stages 2 to 4 enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) between June 2003 and September 2008 and followed up through March 2013.PredictorBaseline uric acid concentrations.OutcomesKidney failure (initiation of dialysis therapy or transplantation) and all-cause mortality.ResultsDuring a median follow-up of 7.9 years, 885 participants progressed to kidney failure and 789 participants died. After adjustment for demographic, cardiovascular, and kidney-specific covariates, higher uric acid concentrations were independently associated with risk for kidney failure in participants with estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFRs) ≥ 45mL/min/1.73m2 (adjusted HR per 1-standard deviation greater baseline uric acid, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.12-1.75), but not in those with eGFRs<30mL/min/1.73m2. There was a nominally higher HR in participants with eGFRs of 30 to 44mL/min/1.73m2 (adjusted HR, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.99-1.29), but this did not reach statistical significance. The relationship between uric acid concentration and all-cause mortality was J-shaped (P=0.007).LimitationsPotential residual confounding through unavailable confounders; lack of follow-up measurements to adjust for changes in uric acid concentrations over time.ConclusionsUric acid concentration is an independent risk factor for kidney failure in earlier stages of CKD and has a J-shaped relationship with all-cause mortality in CKD. Adequately powered randomized placebo-controlled trials in CKD are needed to test whether urate lowering may prove to be an effective approach to prevent complications and progression of CKD.
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