Modeling the protective effect of previous compulsory smallpox vaccination against human monkeypox infection: from hypothesis to a worst-case scenario.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

Human monkeypox (MPX) cases are escalating worldwide. Smallpox vaccination, which was compulsory in Austria until 1981, was reported to confer 85% cross-protection against MPX.

Methods

To assess the impact of smallpox vaccine-induced protection, the age-dependent vaccine-induced immunity against human MPX and the probability of infection according to age in the general population of Vienna, Austria, were determined using a modified susceptible-infected-removed model.

Results

Within the population born before 1981, the average vaccine-induced protective effect was calculated at 50.4%, whereas in the population born thereafter, protection was lacking. The overall probability of infection after exposure to an infected patient was calculated at 73.8%, which exc

SUBMITTER: Spath T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9547495 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature