Dataset Information

Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Melanoma incidence has been rising in populations with predominantly European ancestry (White), speculated to be partly driven by heightened detection of indolent tumors. If in situ melanomas are destined to evolve to invasive cancers, detecting and removing them should deplete the pool of invasive lesions, and people with in situ melanoma should, on average, be younger than those with invasive melanoma.

Methods

We analyzed long-term incidence trends (1982-2018) for in situ and invasive melanomas in 3 predominantly White populations with high, medium, and low melanoma rates: Queensland (Australia), United States White, and Scotland. We calculated the incidence rate ratio (IRR) of in situ to invasive melanomas and estimated the contributions of age, period, and cohort effects. We compared age at diagnosis of in situ vs invasive melanomas overall and stratified by sex and anatomic site.

Results

In all 3 populations, the in situ to invasive incidence rate ratio increased statistically significantly from less than 0.3 in 1982 to 1.95 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.88 to 2.02) in Queensland, 0.93 (95% CI = 0.90 to 0.96) in the US White population, and 0.58 (95% CI = 0.54 to 0.63) in Scotland in 2018. The mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas was the same or higher than invasive melanomas for almost all time periods among men and women and on all body sites except the lower limbs.

Conclusions

The increasing ratio of in situ to invasive melanoma incidence over time, together with the high (and increasing) mean age at diagnosis of in situ melanomas, is consistent with more indolent lesions coming to clinical attention than in previous eras.

SUBMITTER: Olsen CM

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9552301 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis.

Olsen Catherine M CM Pandeya Nirmala N Rosenberg Philip S PS Whiteman David C DC

Journal of the National Cancer Institute 20221001 10

<h4>Background</h4>Melanoma incidence has been rising in populations with predominantly European ancestry (White), speculated to be partly driven by heightened detection of indolent tumors. If in situ melanomas are destined to evolve to invasive cancers, detecting and removing them should deplete the pool of invasive lesions, and people with in situ melanoma should, on average, be younger than those with invasive melanoma.<h4>Methods</h4>We analyzed long-term incidence trends (1982-2018) for in ...[more]

PMID: 36042554

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Dataset Information

Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Incidence of in Situ vs Invasive Melanoma: Testing the "Obligate Precursor" Hypothesis.

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