Secular trends in the mortality of gastrointestinal cancers across China, Japan, the US, and India: An age-period-cohort, Joinpoint analyses, and Holt forecasts.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Colon cancer, esophageal cancer, and stomach cancer are the common causes of morbidity and mortality in China, Japan, the US., and India. The current study aims to assess and compare secular trends of the mortality of gastrointestinal cancers during the period, 1990-2017 in age-specific, time period, and birth cohort effects.

Method

We used the Joinpoint model to collect age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) for four countries. We designed an age-period-cohort (APC) analysis to estimate the independent effects on the mortality of three types of cancers.

Result

The Joinpoint model shows that in addition to the death rate of esophageal cancer in Japan, the ASMR of esophageal cancer and stomach cancer in other countries declined rapidly. The APC analysis pr

SUBMITTER: Cui Y 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9559557 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature