SARIMA and ARDL models for predicting leptospirosis in Anuradhapura district Sri Lanka.

ABSTRACT: Leptospirosis is considered a neglected tropical disease despite its considerable mortality and morbidity. Lack of prediction remains a major reason for underestimating the disease. Although many models have been developed, most of them focused on the districts situated in the wet zone due to higher case numbers in that region. However, leptospirosis remains a major disease even in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. The objective of this study is to develop a time series model to predict leptospirosis in the Anuradhapura district situated in the dry zone of Sri Lanka. Time series data on monthly leptospirosis incidences from January 2008 to December 2018 and monthly rainfall, rainy days, temperature, and relative humidity were considered in model fitting. The first 72 months (55%) were used to fit

SUBMITTER: Warnasekara J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9562162 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature