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Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm.

ABSTRACT: The literature on probabilistic hazard and risk assessment shows a rich and wide variety of modeling strategies tailored to specific perils. On one hand, catastrophe (CAT) modeling, a recent professional and scientific discipline, provides a general structure for the quantification of natural (e.g., geological, hydrological, meteorological) and man-made (e.g., terrorist, cyber) catastrophes. On the other hand, peril characteristics and related processes have yet to be categorized and harmonized to enable adequate comparison, limit silo effects, and simplify the implementation of emerging risks. We reviewed the literature for more than 20 perils from the natural, technological, and socio-economic systems to categorize them by following the CAT modeling hazard pipeline: (1) event source → (2) size distribution → (3) intensity footprint. We defined the following categorizations, which are applicable to any type of peril, specifically: (1) point/line/area/track/diffuse source, (2) discrete event/continuous flow, and (3) spatial diffusion (static)/threshold (passive)/sustained propagation (dynamic). We then harmonized the various hazard processes using energy as the common metric, noting that the hazard pipeline's underlying physical process consists of some energy being transferred from an energy stock (the source), via an event, to the environment (the footprint).

SUBMITTER: Mignan A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9565177 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm.

Mignan Arnaud A

International journal of environmental research and public health 20221006 19

The literature on probabilistic hazard and risk assessment shows a rich and wide variety of modeling strategies tailored to specific perils. On one hand, catastrophe (CAT) modeling, a recent professional and scientific discipline, provides a general structure for the quantification of natural (e.g., geological, hydrological, meteorological) and man-made (e.g., terrorist, cyber) catastrophes. On the other hand, peril characteristics and related processes have yet to be categorized and harmonized ...[more]

PMID: 36232079

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Project description:BackgroundTraditional government policies suggest that upstream investment in scientific research is necessary and sufficient to generate technological innovations. The expected downstream beneficial socio-economic impacts are presumed to occur through non-government market mechanisms. However, there is little quantitative evidence for such a direct and formulaic relationship between public investment at the input end and marketplace benefits at the impact end. Instead, the literature demonstrates that the technological innovation process involves a complex interaction between multiple sectors, methods, and stakeholders.DiscussionThe authors theorize that accomplishing the full process of technological innovation in a deliberate and systematic manner requires an operational-level model encompassing three underlying methods, each designed to generate knowledge outputs in different states: scientific research generates conceptual discoveries; engineering development generates prototype inventions; and industrial production generates commercial innovations. Given the critical roles of engineering and business, the entire innovation process should continuously consider the practical requirements and constraints of the commercial marketplace.The Need to Knowledge (NtK) Model encompasses the activities required to successfully generate innovations, along with associated strategies for effectively communicating knowledge outputs in all three states to the various stakeholders involved. It is intentionally grounded in evidence drawn from academic analysis to facilitate objective and quantitative scrutiny, and industry best practices to enable practical application.SummaryThe Need to Knowledge (NtK) Model offers a practical, market-oriented approach that avoids the gaps, constraints and inefficiencies inherent in undirected activities and disconnected sectors. The NtK Model is a means to realizing increased returns on public investments in those science and technology programs expressly intended to generate beneficial socio-economic impacts.

Project description:BackgroundCOVID-19 caused a worldwide outbreak leading the majority of human activities to a rough breakdown. Many stakeholders proposed multiple interventions to slow down the disease and number of papers were devoted to the understanding the pandemic, but to a less extend some were oriented socio-economic analysis. In this paper, a socio-economic analysis is proposed to investigate the early-age effect of socio-economic factors on COVID-19 spread.MethodsFifty-two countries were selected for this study. A cascade algorithm was developed to extract the R0 number and the day J*; these latter should decrease as the pandemic flattens. Subsequently, R0 and J* were modeled according to socio-economic factors using multilinear stepwise-regression.ResultsThe findings demonstrated that low values of days before lockdown should flatten the pandemic by reducing J*. Hopefully, DBLD is only parameter to be tuned in the short-term; the other socio-economic parameters cannot easily be handled as they are annually updated. Furthermore, it was highlighted that the elderly is also a major influencing factor especially because it is involved in the interactions terms in R0 model. Simulations proved that the health care system could improve the pandemic damping for low elderly. In contrast, above a given elderly, the reproduction number R0 cannot be reduced even for developed countries (showing high HCI values), meaning that the disease's severity cannot be smoothed regardless the performance of the corresponding health care system; non-pharmaceutical interventions are then expected to be more efficient than corrective measures.DiscussionThe relationship between the socio-economic factors and the pandemic parameters R0 and J* exhibits complex relations compared to the models that are proposed in the literature. The quadratic regression model proposed here has discriminated the most influencing parameters within the following approximated order, DLBL, HCI, Elderly, Tav, CO2, and WC as first order, interaction, and second order terms.ConclusionsThis modeling allowed the emergence of interaction terms that don't appear in similar studies; this led to emphasize more complex relationship between the infection spread and the socio-economic factors. Future works will focus on enriching the datasets and the optimization of the controlled parameters to short-term slowdown of similar pandemics.

Dataset Information

Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm.

Publications

Categorizing and Harmonizing Natural, Technological, and Socio-Economic Perils Following the Catastrophe Modeling Paradigm.

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