Measuring the impact of COVID-19 vaccination and immunity waning: A modelling study for Portugal.

ABSTRACT: Vaccination strategies to control COVID-19 have been ongoing worldwide since the end of 2020. Understanding their possible effect is key to prevent future disease spread. Using a modelling approach, this study intends to measure the impact of the COVID-19 Portuguese vaccination strategy on the effective reproduction number and explore three scenarios for vaccine effectiveness waning. Namely, the no-immunity-loss, 1-year and 3-years of immunity duration scenarios. We adapted an age-structured SEIR deterministic model and used Portuguese hospitalisation data for the model calibration. Results show that, although the Portuguese vaccination plan had a substantial impact in reducing overall transmission, it might not be sufficient to control disease spread. A significant vaccination coverage of

SUBMITTER: Caetano C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9576223 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature