Projecting Spanish fertility at regional level: A hierarchical Bayesian approach.

ABSTRACT: The transition from a demographic regime of high mortality and high fertility to one with low mortality and low fertility is universal and comes along with the process of socio-economic modernization. The Spanish total fertility rate has decreased to below replacement levels in the last decades. The decline has persisted since the 1960s and is diverse across the country. Based on that diversity, the use of population forecasts, not only at national but at regional levels, for planning purposes (governments and private sector) with large horizons has become a must to provide essential services. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model we constructed probabilistic fertility forecasts for Spain at the regional level. Although this approach is already issued by the United Nations little research ha

SUBMITTER: Rafael Caro-Barrera J 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9578621 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature