Epidemic time series similarity is related to geographic distance and age structure.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

More similar locations may have similar infectious disease dynamics. There is clear overlap in putative causes for epidemic similarity, such as geographic distance, age structure, and population size. We compare the effects of these potential drivers on epidemic similarity compared to a baseline assumption that differences in the basic reproductive number (R ₀) will translate to differences in epidemic trajectories.

Methods

Using COVID-19 case counts from United States counties, we explore the importance of geographic distance, population size differences, and age structure dissimilarity on resulting epidemic similarity.

Results

We find clear effects of geographic space, age structure, population size, and R ₀ on epidemic

SUBMITTER: Dallas TA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9579807 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature