Dataset Information

Epidemic time series similarity is related to geographic distance and age structure.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

More similar locations may have similar infectious disease dynamics. There is clear overlap in putative causes for epidemic similarity, such as geographic distance, age structure, and population size. We compare the effects of these potential drivers on epidemic similarity compared to a baseline assumption that differences in the basic reproductive number (R ₀) will translate to differences in epidemic trajectories.

Methods

Using COVID-19 case counts from United States counties, we explore the importance of geographic distance, population size differences, and age structure dissimilarity on resulting epidemic similarity.

Results

We find clear effects of geographic space, age structure, population size, and R ₀ on epidemic similarity, but notably the effect of age structure was stronger than the baseline assumption that differences in R ₀ would be most related to epidemic similarity.

Conclusions

Together, this highlights the role of spatial and demographic processes on SARS-CoV2 epidemics in the United States.

SUBMITTER: Dallas TA

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9579807 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Epidemic time series similarity is related to geographic distance and age structure.

Dallas Tad A TA Foster Grant G Richards Robert L RL Elderd Bret D BD

Infectious Disease Modelling 20221012 4

<h4>Objective</h4>More similar locations may have similar infectious disease dynamics. There is clear overlap in putative causes for epidemic similarity, such as geographic distance, age structure, and population size. We compare the effects of these potential drivers on epidemic similarity compared to a baseline assumption that differences in the basic reproductive number (<i>R</i> <sub>0</sub>) will translate to differences in epidemic trajectories.<h4>Methods</h4>Using COVID-19 case counts fr ...[more]

PMID: 36313152

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Dataset Information

Epidemic time series similarity is related to geographic distance and age structure.

Objective

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Epidemic time series similarity is related to geographic distance and age structure.

Similar Datasets

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