Dataset Information

Real-Time Analysis of Predictors of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Countries in the European Union Through a New Tool.

ABSTRACT: Objectives: Real-time data analysis during a pandemic is crucial. This paper aims to introduce a novel interactive tool called Covid-Predictor-Tracker using several sources of COVID-19 data, which allows examining developments over time and across countries. Exemplified here by investigating relative effects of vaccination to non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 spread. Methods: We combine >100 indicators from the Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, Johns Hopkins University, Our World in Data, European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, National Centers for Environmental Information, and Eurostat using random forests, hierarchical clustering, and rank correlation to predict COVID-19 cases. Results: Between 2/2020 and 1/2022, we found among the non-pharmaceutical interventions "mask usage" to have strong effects after the percentage of people vaccinated at least once, followed by country-specific measures such as lock-downs. Countries with similar characteristics share ranks of infection predictors. Gender and age distribution, healthcare expenditures and cultural participation interact with restriction measures. Conclusion: Including time-aware machine learning models in COVID-19 infection dashboards allows to disentangle and rank predictors of COVID-19 cases per country to support policy evaluation. Our open-source tool can be updated daily with continuous data streams, and expanded as the pandemic evolves.

SUBMITTER: Balogh A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9582119 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Real-Time Analysis of Predictors of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Countries in the European Union Through a New Tool.

Balogh Aniko A Harman Anna A Kreuter Frauke F

International journal of public health 20221006

<b>Objectives:</b> Real-time data analysis during a pandemic is crucial. This paper aims to introduce a novel interactive tool called Covid-Predictor-Tracker using several sources of COVID-19 data, which allows examining developments over time and across countries. Exemplified here by investigating relative effects of vaccination to non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 spread. <b>Methods:</b> We combine >100 indicators from the Global COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey, Johns Hopkins Univ ...[more]

PMID: 36275432

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Project description:In the current era of globalization, a clean environment remains a crucial factor for the health of the population. Thus, improving air quality is a major focus of environmental policies, as it affects all aspects of nature, including humans. For these reasons, it is appropriate to take into account the health risks posed by greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions released into the atmosphere. With regard to global GHG emissions, there are concerns about the loss of protection of the ozone layer and it is very likely that climate change can be expected, which multiplies the environmental threat and has potentially serious global consequences. In this regard, it is important to pay increased attention to emissions that enter the atmosphere, which include countless toxic substances. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between selected GHG emissions and the health of the European Union (EU) population represented by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). This aim was achieved using several analytical procedures (descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, cluster analysis, and panel regression analysis), which included five environmental variables (carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) in CO2 equivalent, nitrous oxide (N2O) in CO2 equivalent, hydrofluorocarbons (HFC) in CO2 equivalent, sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) in CO2 equivalent) and one health variable (DALYs). An emphasis was placed on the use of quantitative methods. The results showed that CO2 emissions have a dominant position among selected GHG emissions. The revealed positive link between CO2 and DALYs indicated that a decrease in CO2 may be associated with a decrease in DALYs, but it is also true that this cannot be done without reducing emissions of other combustion products. In terms of CO2, the least positive scores were observed in Luxembourg and Estonia. Germany had the lowest score of DALYs, representing the most positive health outcome in the EU. In terms of total GHG emissions, Ireland and Luxembourg were considered to be less positive countries compared to the other analyzed countries. Countries should focus on reducing GHG emissions in general, but from a health point of view, reducing CO2 emissions seems to be the most beneficial.

Project description:ImportanceRaising the price of cigarettes by increasing taxation has been associated with improved perinatal and child health outcomes. Transnational tobacco companies have sought to undermine tobacco tax policy by adopting pricing strategies that maintain the availability of budget cigarettes.ObjectiveTo assess associations between median cigarette prices, cigarette price differentials, and infant mortality across the European Union.Design, setting, and participantsA longitudinal, ecological study was conducted from January 1, 2004, to December 31, 2014, of infant populations in 23 countries (comprising 276 subnational regions) within the European Union.InterventionsMedian cigarette prices and the differential between these and minimum cigarette prices were obtained from Euromonitor International. Pricing differentials were calculated as the proportions (%) obtained by dividing the difference between median and minimum cigarette price by median price. Prices were adjusted for inflation.Main outcomes and measuresAnnual infant mortality rates. Associations were assessed using linear fixed-effect panel regression models adjusted for smoke-free policies, gross domestic product, unemployment rate, education, maternal age, and underlining temporal trends.ResultsAmong the 53 704 641 live births during the study period, an increase of €1 (US $1.18) per pack in the median cigarette price was associated with a decline of 0.23 deaths per 1000 live births in the same year (95% CI, -0.37 to -0.09) and a decline of 0.16 deaths per 1000 live births the following year (95% CI, -0.30 to -0.03). An increase of 10% in the price differential between median-priced and minimum-priced cigarettes was associated with an increase of 0.07 deaths per 1000 live births (95% CI, 0.01-0.13) the following year. Cigarette price increases across 23 European countries between 2004 and 2014 were associated with 9208 (95% CI, 8601-9814) fewer infant deaths; 3195 (95% CI, 3017-3372) infant deaths could have been avoided had there been no cost differential between the median-priced and minimum-priced cigarettes during this period.Conclusions and relevanceHigher cigarette prices were associated with reduced infant mortality, while increased cigarette price differentials were associated with higher infant mortality in the European Union. Combined with other evidence, this research suggests that legislators should implement tobacco tax and price control measures that eliminate budget cigarettes.

Dataset Information

Real-Time Analysis of Predictors of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Countries in the European Union Through a New Tool.

Publications

Real-Time Analysis of Predictors of COVID-19 Infection Spread in Countries in the European Union Through a New Tool.

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