Real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 in Aotearoa New Zealand.

ABSTRACT: During an epidemic, real-time estimation of the effective reproduction number supports decision makers to introduce timely and effective public health measures. We estimate the time-varying effective reproduction number, R_t , during Aotearoa New Zealand's August 2021 outbreak of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2, by fitting the publicly available EpiNow2 model to New Zealand case data. While we do not explicitly model non-pharmaceutical interventions or vaccination coverage, these two factors were the leading drivers of variation in transmission in this period and we describe how changes in these factors coincided with changes in R_t . Alert Level 4, New Zealand's most stringent restriction setting which includes stay-at-home measures, was initially effecti

SUBMITTER: Binny RN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9583856 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature