Epidemic spreading under mutually independent intra- and inter-host pathogen evolution.

ABSTRACT: The dynamics of epidemic spreading is often reduced to the single control parameter R₀ (reproduction-rate), whose value, above or below unity, determines the state of the contagion. If, however, the pathogen evolves as it spreads, R₀ may change over time, potentially leading to a mutation-driven spread, in which an initially sub-pandemic pathogen undergoes a breakthrough mutation. To predict the boundaries of this pandemic phase, we introduce here a modeling framework to couple the inter-host network spreading patterns with the intra-host evolutionary dynamics. We find that even in the extreme case when these two process are driven by mutually independent selection forces, mutations can still fundamentally alter the pandemic phase-diagram. The pandemic transitions, we

SUBMITTER: Zhang X 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9584276 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature