Forecasted 2040 global prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease using hierarchical bayesian approach.

ABSTRACT:

Background/aims

Due to increases in obesity and type 2 diabetes, the prevalence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) has also been increasing. Current forecast models may not include non-obese NAFLD. Here, we used the Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through the year 2040.

Methods

Prevalence data from 245 articles involving 2,699,627 persons were used with a hierarchical Bayesian approach to forecast the prevalence of NAFLD through 2040. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, gender, presence of metabolic syndrome, region, and smoking status. Sensitivity analysis was conducted for clinical setting and study quality.

Results

The forecasted 2040 prevalence was 55.7%, a three-fold increase since 1990 and a 43.2% increase from the 2020 preva

SUBMITTER: Le MH 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9597215 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature