The resurgence risk of COVID-19 in China in the presence of immunity waning and ADE: A mathematical modelling study.

ABSTRACT: The mass vaccination program has been actively promoted since the end of 2020. However, waning immunity, antibody-dependent enhancement (ADE), and increased transmissibility of variants make the herd immunity untenable and the implementation of dynamic zero-COVID policy challenging in China. To explore how long the vaccination program can prevent China at low resurgence risk, and how these factors affect the long-term trajectory of the COVID-19 epidemics, we developed a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 incorporating vaccination and waning immunity, calibrated using the data of accumulative vaccine doses administered and the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 in mainland China. The prediction suggests that the vaccination coverage with at least one dose reach 95.87%, and two doses reach 77.92%

SUBMITTER: Zhou W 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9597525 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature