Dataset Information

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by Aedes-borne arboviruses in Mexico.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The intensity of transmission of Aedes-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major Aedes-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika virus (ZIKV) clusters in Mexico.

Methods

We present an integrated analysis of Aedes-borne diseases (ABDs), the local climate, and the socio-demographic profiles of 2469 municipalities in Mexico. We used SaTScan to detect spatial clusters and utilize the Pearson correlation coefficient, Randomized Dependence Coefficient, and SHapley Additive exPlanations to analyze the influence of socio-demographic and climatic factors on the prevalence of ABDs. We also compare six machine learning techniques, including XGBoost, decision tree, Support Vector Machine with Radial Basis Function kernel, K nearest neighbors, random forest, and neural network to predict risk factors of ABDs clusters.

Results

DENV is the most prevalent of the three diseases throughout Mexico, with nearly 60.6% of the municipalities reported having DENV cases. For some spatiotemporal clusters, the influence of socio-economic attributes is larger than the influence of climate attributes for predicting the prevalence of ABDs. XGBoost performs the best in terms of precision-measure for ABDs prevalence.

Conclusions

Both socio-demographic and climatic factors influence ABDs transmission in different regions of Mexico. Future studies should build predictive models supporting early warning systems to anticipate the time and location of ABDs outbreaks and determine the stand-alone influence of individual risk factors and establish causal mechanisms.

SUBMITTER: Dong B

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9616936 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Spatio-temporal dynamics of three diseases caused by <i>Aedes</i>-borne arboviruses in Mexico.

Dong Bo B Khan Latifur L Smith Madison M Trevino Jesus J Zhao Bingxin B Hamer Gabriel L GL Lopez-Lemus Uriel A UA Molina Aracely Angulo AA Lubinda Jailos J Nguyen Uyen-Sa D T UDT Haque Ubydul U

Communications medicine 20221028

<h4>Background</h4>The intensity of transmission of <i>Aedes</i>-borne viruses is heterogeneous, and multiple factors can contribute to variation at small spatial scales. Illuminating drivers of heterogeneity in prevalence over time and space would provide information for public health authorities. The objective of this study is to detect the spatiotemporal clusters and determine the risk factors of three major <i>Aedes</i>-borne diseases, Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), Dengue virus (DENV), and Zika ...[more]

PMID: 36317054

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Project description:Aedes-borne viral diseases mainly Yellow Fever (YF), Dengue (DEN), Zika (ZIK) and Chikungunya (CHK) have contributed to many deaths' in the world especially in Africa. There have been major outbreaks of these diseases in West Africa. Although, YF outbreaks have occurred in Ghana over the years, no outbreak of DEN, ZIK and CHK has been recorded. However, the risk of outbreak is high due to its proximity to West African countries where outbreaks have been recently been recorded. This study surveyed the mosquito fauna to assess the risk of transmission of Yellow fever (YFV), Dengue (DENV), Chikungunya (CHKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses in Larabanga and Mole Game Reserve areas in Northern Ghana. The immature and adult stages of Aedes mosquitoes were collected from Larabanga and Mole Game Reserve area. There was a significant (P>0.001) number of mosquitoes collected during the rainy season than the dry season. A total of 1,930 Aedes mosquitoes were collected during the rainy season and morphologically identified. Of these, 1,915 (99.22%) were Aedes aegypti and 15 (0.22%) were Aedes vittatus. During the dry season, 27 Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were collected. A total of 415 Ae. aegypti mosquitoes were molecularly identified to subspecies level of which Ae. (Ae) aegypti aegypti was the predominant subspecies. Both Ae. aegypti aegypti and Ae aegypti formosus exist in sympatry in the area. All Aedes pools (75) were negative for DENV, ZIKV and CHKV when examined by RT- PCR. Three Larval indices namely House Index, HI (percentage of houses positive for Aedes larvae or pupae), Container Index, CI (the percentage of containers positive for Aedes larvae or pupae) and Breteau Index, BI (number of positive containers per 100 houses inspected) were assessed as a measure for risk of transmission in the study area. The HI, CI and BI for both sites were as follows; Mole Game Reserve (HI, 42.1%, CI, 23.5% and BI, 100 for rainy season and 0 for all indices for dry season) and Larabanga (39%, 15.5% and 61 for rainy season and 2.3%, 1.3% and 2.3 for dry season). The spatial distribution of Aedes breeding sites in both areas indicated that Aedes larvae were breeding in areas with close proximity to humans. Lorry tires were the main source of Aedes larvae in all the study areas. Information about the species composition and the potential role of Aedes mosquitoes in future outbreaks of the diseases that they transmit is needed to design efficient surveillance and vector control tools.