Early estimates of the incidence trend and the reproductive number of the monkeypox epidemic in Brazil.

ABSTRACT:

Background

We aimed to calculate the weekly growth of the incidence and the effective reproductive number (Rt) of the 2022 Monkeypox epidemic during its introduction in Brazil.

Method

We described the case distribution in the country and calculated the incidence trend and the Rt in the four geographical states with the highest case reports. By using two regression approaches, count model and the Prais-Winsten, we calculated the relative incidence increase. Moreover, we estimated the Rt for the period between the 24th and the 50th days after the first official report, using a serial interval reported in another population and two alternative values (± 3 days).

Results

Up to August 22, 3.896 Monkeypox cases were confirmed in Brazil. The weekly incidence increases were b

SUBMITTER: Schrarstzhaupt IN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9617678 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov-Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature