Ascertainment rate of SARS-CoV-2 infections from healthcare and community testing in the UK.

ABSTRACT: The proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections ascertained through healthcare and community testing is generally unknown and expected to vary depending on natural factors and changes in test-seeking behaviour. Here we use population surveillance data and reported daily case numbers in the United Kingdom to estimate the rate of case ascertainment. We mathematically describe the relationship between the ascertainment rate, the daily number of reported cases, population prevalence, and the sensitivity of PCR and Lateral Flow tests as a function time since exposure. Applying this model to the data, we estimate that 20%-40% of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the UK were ascertained with a positive test with results varying by time and region. Cases of the Alpha variant were ascertained at a higher rate than

SUBMITTER: Colman E 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9636607 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Feb

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature