Chimeric forecasting: combining probabilistic predictions from computational models and human judgment.

ABSTRACT: Forecasts of the trajectory of an infectious agent can help guide public health decision making. A traditional approach to forecasting fits a computational model to structured data and generates a predictive distribution. However, human judgment has access to the same data as computational models plus experience, intuition, and subjective data. We propose a chimeric ensemble-a combination of computational and human judgment forecasts-as a novel approach to predicting the trajectory of an infectious agent. Each month from January, 2021 to June, 2021 we asked two generalist crowds, using the same criteria as the COVID-19 Forecast Hub, to submit a predictive distribution over incident cases and deaths at the US national level either two or three weeks into the future and combined these human

SUBMITTER: McAndrew T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9648897 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature