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Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan.

ABSTRACT: The COVID-19 pandemic has brought huge challenges to sustainable urban and community development. Although some recovery signals and patterns have been uncovered, the intra-city recovery process remains underexploited. This study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify COVID-19 recovery leveraging fine-grained human mobility records. Taking Wuhan, a typical COVID-19 affected megacity in China, as the study area, we identify accurate recovery phases and select appropriate recovery functions in a data-driven manner. We observe that recovery characteristics regarding duration, amplitude, and velocity exhibit notable differences among urban blocks. We also notice that the recovery process under a one-wave outbreak lasts at least 84 days and has an S-shaped form best fitted with four-parameter Logistic functions. More than half of the recovery variance can be well explained and estimated by common variables from auxiliary data, including population, economic level, and built environments. Our study serves as a valuable reference that supports data-driven recovery quantification for COVID-19 and other crises.

SUBMITTER: Liu X

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9659556 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan.

Liu Xiaoyan X Yang Saini S Huang Xiao X An Rui R Xiong Qiangqiang Q Ye Tao T

Cities (London, England) 20221114

The COVID-19 pandemic has brought huge challenges to sustainable urban and community development. Although some recovery signals and patterns have been uncovered, the intra-city recovery process remains underexploited. This study proposes a comprehensive approach to quantify COVID-19 recovery leveraging fine-grained human mobility records. Taking Wuhan, a typical COVID-19 affected megacity in China, as the study area, we identify accurate recovery phases and select appropriate recovery functions ...[more]

PMID: 36407935

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Project description:BackgroundReaching optimal vaccination rates is an essential public health strategy to control the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. This study aimed to simulate the optimal vaccination strategy to control the disease by developing an age-specific model based on the current transmission patterns of COVID-19 in Wuhan City, China.MethodsWe collected two indicators of COVID-19, including illness onset data and age of confirmed case in Wuhan City, from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. The reported cases were divided into four age groups: group 1, ≤ 14 years old; group 2, 15 to 44 years old; group 3, 44 to 64 years old; and group 4, ≥ 65 years old. An age-specific susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered/removed model was developed to estimate the transmissibility and simulate the optimal vaccination strategy. The effective reproduction number (Reff) was used to estimate the transmission interaction in different age groups.ResultsA total of 47 722 new cases were reported in Wuhan City from December 2, 2019, to March 16, 2020. Before the travel ban of Wuhan City, the highest transmissibility was observed among age group 2 (Reff = 4.28), followed by group 2 to 3 (Reff = 2.61), and group 2 to 4 (Reff = 1.69). China should vaccinate at least 85% of the total population to interrupt transmission. The priority for controlling transmission should be to vaccinate 5% to 8% of individuals in age group 2 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% of age group 2), followed by 10% of age group 3 per day (ultimately vaccinated 90% age group 3). However, the optimal vaccination strategy for reducing the disease severity identified individuals ≥ 65 years old as a priority group, followed by those 45-64 years old.ConclusionsApproximately 85% of the total population (nearly 1.2 billion people) should be vaccinated to build an immune barrier in China to safely consider removing border restrictions. Based on these results, we concluded that 90% of adults aged 15-64 years should first be vaccinated to prevent transmission in China.

Project description:BackgroundThe occupancy of healthcare resources by the COVID-19 outbreak had led to the unmet health needs of non-COVID-19 diseases. We aimed to explore whether the social media information could help surveil and understand the characteristics of unmet non-COVID-19 health needs during the COVID-19 outbreak in Wuhan city.MethodsThis was an observational study based on social media data. The study period was set during the 3 months of the COVID-19 outbreak. Non-COVID-19 urgent and emergent health needs in Wuhan city were derived from Sina Weibo-one of China's largest social media platforms. Lag Spearman correlation was used to investigate the epidemiological relationship between the COVID-19 outbreak and non-COVID-19 health needs. Patient's primary diseases and needed care were annotated and categorized according to the International Classification of Diseases 11th Revision. The delay time in seeking help was calculated and compared.ResultsAfter screening 114,795 Weibo posts, a total of 229 patients with non-COVID-19 health needs were included in our study. There were significant correlations between the daily number of COVID-19 cases at a 10-day lag, deaths at a 5-day lag, and non-COVID-19 Weibo. The actual number of non-COVID-19 patients with urgent and emergent health needs was estimated to be about 6,966. Patients with non-COVID-19 health needs were skewed to those aged 50 to 70 years. The non-COVID-19 diseases were diverse, with 46.3% as non-neoplastic diseases and 53.7% as neoplasms. The most needed cares were palliative cancer care (22.7%), chemotherapy (18.8%), and critical care (17.0%). The median delay in seeking help was 3 days [interquartile range (IQR), 1 to 15 days] for acute care, and 18.5 days (IQR, 6 to 30 days) for cancer care.ConclusionsOur preliminary findings in Wuhan city indicated that the social media data might provide a viable option to surveil and understand the unmet health needs during an outbreak. Those heterogeneous health needs derived from the social media data might inspire a more resilient healthcare system to address the unmet needs promptly.

Dataset Information

Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan.

Publications

Quantifying COVID-19 recovery process from a human mobility perspective: An intra-city study in Wuhan.

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