Modeling the impact of surveillance activities combined with physical distancing interventions on COVID-19 epidemics at a local level.

ABSTRACT: Physical distancing and contact tracing are two key components in controlling the COVID-19 epidemics. Understanding their interaction at local level is important for policymakers. We propose a flexible modeling framework to assess the effect of combining contact tracing with different physical distancing strategies. Using scenario tree analyses, we compute the probability of COVID-19 detection using passive surveillance, with and without contact tracing, in metropolitan Barcelona. The estimates of detection probability and the frequency of daily social contacts are fitted into an age-structured susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered compartmental model to simulate the epidemics considering different physical distancing scenarios over a period of 26 weeks. With the original Wuhan strain,

SUBMITTER: Chen GJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9670679 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature