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Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

ABSTRACT: Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. We present a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and use it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria. We derive local seismic intensities for paleo-earthquakes by applying scaling relationships between the sedimentary imprint and seismic intensity of well-documented historical earthquakes. The last ~ 2.8 ka of the record agree with a Poissonian recurrence behaviour and therefore a constant hazard rate, which is the modelling choice for standard PSHA. The lacustrine data are consistent with the intensity-frequency relationship of the local seismic hazard curve, confirming the current PSHA approach for this part of Austria. On longer timescales, distinct phases of enhanced regional seismicity occurred, indicating a potential increase of seismic hazard after large earthquakes-a factor hitherto disregarded in the PSHA of the Eastern Alps. Our new method forms an independent procedure to test hazard maps in any setting where suitable lake systems are available.

SUBMITTER: Daxer C

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9675742 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

Daxer Christoph C Huang Jyh-Jaan Steven JS Weginger Stefan S Hilbe Michael M Strasser Michael M Moernaut Jasper J

Scientific reports 20221119 1

Seismic hazard maps are crucial for earthquake mitigation and mostly rely on probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA). However, the practise and value of PSHA are under debate because objective testing procedures for seismic hazard maps are scarce. We present a lacustrine turbidite record revealing 44 earthquakes over the last ~ 14 ka and use it to test seismic hazard curves in southern Austria. We derive local seismic intensities for paleo-earthquakes by applying scaling relationships betwe ...[more]

PMID: 36402900

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Project description:Standards and Codes of Practice for designing new constructions and for assessing and strengthening existing ones are usually based on uniform hazard maps, where different Limit States (LSs) are associated with different hazard-exceedance probabilities. This approach yields non-homogeneous LS-exceedance probabilities across a territory, thus failing to achieve the goal of uniform risk throughout a territory. Such lack of uniformity stems from estimating the probability of failure using capacity and demand models. If the capacity of new constructions-or the capacity increase of strengthened existing constructions-are designed based on a prescribed hazard-exceedance probability, then the seismic risk depends on both the structure (depending on the design philosophy and corresponding design objectives), through the capacity model, and the location, through the hazard model. The aim of this study is threefold. First, it provides a seismic probability assessment formulation and a risk-targeted intensity measure based on a linear model in log-log coordinates of the hazard, under the assumption of log-normal capacity and demand. The proposed framework introduces a factor that multiplies the code hazard-based demand to account either for intentional (from design) over-capacity or for undesired (e.g., in existing constructions) under-capacity. Second, this paper shows an application to peak ground accelerations in Europe considering parameters taken from Standards and Codes of Practice. The developed framework is used to determine the risk-target levels of peak ground acceleration used for design in Europe, for both new and existing constructions. Third, the obtained target risk levels are used to determine a risk-based intensity modification factor and a risk-based mean return period modification factor, which can be readily implemented in current Standards to achieve risk-targeted design actions, with equal LS-exceedance probability across the territory. The framework is independent of the chosen hazard-based intensity measure, be it the commonly used peak ground acceleration or any other measure. The results highlight that in large areas of Europe the design peak ground acceleration should be increased to achieve the proposed seismic risk target and that this is particularly significant for existing constructions, given their larger uncertainties and typical low capacity with respect to the code hazard-based demand.

Dataset Information

Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

Publications

Validation of seismic hazard curves using a calibrated 14 ka lacustrine record in the Eastern Alps, Austria.

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