Estimating the impact of implementation and timing of the COVID-19 vaccination programme in Brazil: a counterfactual analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Vaccines developed between 2020 and 2021 against the SARS-CoV-2 virus were designed to diminish the severity and prevent deaths due to COVID-19. However, estimates of the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns in achieving these goals remain a methodological challenge. In this work, we developed a Bayesian statistical model to estimate the number of deaths and hospitalisations averted by vaccination of older adults (above 60 years old) in Brazil.

Methods

We fit a linear model to predict the number of deaths and hospitalisations of older adults as a function of vaccination coverage in this group and casualties in younger adults. We used this model in a counterfactual analysis, simulating alternative scenarios without vaccination or with faster vaccination roll-out.

SUBMITTER: Ferreira LS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9676113 | biostudies-literature | 2023 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature