New Insights into the Estimation of Reproduction Numbers during an Epidemic.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we deal with the problem of estimating the reproduction number Rt during an epidemic, as it represents one of the most used indicators to study and control this phenomenon. In particular, we focus on two issues. First, to estimate Rt, we consider the use of positive test case data as an alternative to the first symptoms data, which are typically used. We both theoretically and empirically study the relationship between the two approaches. Second, we modify a method for estimating Rt during an epidemic that is widely used by public institutions in several countries worldwide. Our procedure is not affected by the problems deriving from the hypothesis of Rt local constancy, which is assumed in the standard approach. We illustrate the results obtained by applying the proposed me

SUBMITTER: Sebastiani G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9694736 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Oct

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature