Dataset Information

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.

Methods

Regression relationships are established between historical (1995-2010) clinical malaria and anaemia cases and rainfall and temperature for four East African malaria hotspots. The vector autoregressive moving average processes model, VARMAX (p,q,s), is then used to forecast malaria and anaemia responses to rainfall and temperatures projected with an ensemble of eight General Circulation Models (GCMs) for climate change scenarios defined by three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5).

Results

Maximum temperatures in the long rainy (March-May) and dry (June-September) seasons will likely increase by over 2.0 °C by 2070, relative to 1971-2000, under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Minimum temperatures (June-September) will likely increase by over 1.5-3.0 °C under RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The short rains (OND) will likely increase more than the long rains (MAM) by the 2050s and 2070s under RCPs 4.5 and 8.5. Historical malaria cases are positively and linearly related to the 3-6-month running means of monthly rainfall and maximum temperature. Marked variation characterizes the patterns projected for each of the three scenarios across the eight General Circulation Models, reaffirming the importance of using an ensemble of models for projections.

Conclusions

The short rains (OND), wet season (MAM) temperatures and clinical malaria cases will likely increase in the Lake Victoria Basin. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, including malaria control interventions could reduce the projected epidemics and cases. Interventions should reduce emerging risks, human vulnerability and environmental suitability for malaria transmission.

SUBMITTER: Ototo EN

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9705490 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.

Ototo Ednah N EN Ogutu Joseph O JO Githeko Andrew A Said Mohammed Y MY Kamau Lucy L Namanya Didacus D Simiyu Stella S Mutimba Stephen S

Acta parasitologica 20220812 4

<h4>Background</h4>Malaria epidemics are increasing in East Africa since the 1980s, coincident with rising temperature and widening climate variability. A projected 1-3.5 °C rise in average global temperatures by 2100 could exacerbate the epidemics by modifying disease transmission thresholds. Future malaria scenarios for the Lake Victoria Basin (LVB) are quantified for projected climate scenarios spanning 2006-2100.<h4>Methods</h4>Regression relationships are established between historical (199 ...[more]

PMID: 35962265

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Project description:The increasing demand for cultivated lands driven by human population growth, escalating consumption and activities, combined with the vast area of uncultivated land, highlight the pressing need to better understand the biodiversity conservation implications of land use change in Sub-Saharan Africa. Land use change alters natural wildlife habitats with fundamental consequences for biodiversity. Consequently, species richness and diversity typically decline as land use changes from natural to disturbed. We assess how richness and diversity of avian species, grouped into feeding guilds, responded to land use changes, primarily expansion of settlements and cultivation at three sites in the Lake Victoria Basin in western Kenya, following tsetse control interventions. Each site consisted of a matched pair of spatially adjacent natural/semi-natural and settled/cultivated landscapes. Significant changes occurred in bird species richness and diversity in the disturbed relative to the natural landscape. Disturbed areas had fewer guilds and all guilds in disturbed areas also occurred in natural areas. Guilds had significantly more species in natural than in disturbed areas. The insectivore/granivore and insectivore/wax feeder guilds occurred only in natural areas. Whilst species diversity was far lower, a few species of estrildid finches were more common in the disturbed landscapes and were often observed on the scrubby edges of modified habitats. In contrast, the natural and less disturbed wooded areas had relatively fewer estrildid species and were completely devoid of several other species. In aggregate, land use changes significantly reduced bird species richness and diversity on the disturbed landscapes regardless of their breeding range size or foraging style (migratory or non-migratory) and posed greater risks to non-migratory species. Accordingly, land use planning should integrate conservation principles that preserve salient habitat qualities required by different bird species, such as adequate patch size and habitat connectivity, conserve viable bird populations and restore degraded habitats to alleviate adverse impacts of land use change on avian species richness and diversity.

Project description:BackgroundThe indoor residual spraying programme for malaria vectors control was implemented in four districts of the Lake Victoria basin of Tanzania namely Ukerewe, Sengerema, Rorya andSerengeti. Entomological monitoring activities were implemented in one sentinel village in each district to evaluate the efficacy of pirimiphos-methyl 300 CS sprayed on different wall surfaces and its impact against malaria vectors post-IRS intervention.MethodsThe residual decay rate of p-methyl 300 CS applied at a target dosage of 1g a.i./m2 on thesprayed wall surfaces was monitored for a period of 43 weeks post-IRSusing the WHO cone wall bioassay method. The bioassays were performed by exposing 2-5 days old unfed susceptible female Anopheles gambiae s.s. (Kisumu strain) to sprayed wall surfaces for a period of 30 minutes. In each sentinel village, mosquito collection was carried out by trained community mosquito collectors. Monthly mosquito collections were carried out from 6.00pm to 6.00am using CDC light traps and clay pot methods for indoors host seekingand outdoors resting mosquitoes respectively. Six traps (2 CDC light traps and 4 clay pots) were set per sentinel village per night for28 consecutive days in a moon. PCR and ELISA were used for mosquito species identification and sporozoite detection, respectively.ResultsBased on the WHOPES recommendation, insecticides should have a minimum efficacy of ≥ 80% mosquito mortality at 24 hours post exposure on the sprayed wall surfaces to be considered effective. In this study, p-methyl 300 CS was demonstrated to have a long residual efficacy of 21-43 weeks post-IRS on mud, cement, painted and wood wall surfaces. Numberof anopheline mosquitoes decreased post-IRS interventions in all sentinel villages. The highest numbers ofanopheline mosquitoes were collected in November-December, 38-43 weeks post-IRS. A total of 270 female anopheline mosquitoes were analyzed by PCR; out of which 236 (87.4%) were An. gambiae s.l. and 34 (12.6%) were An. funestus group. Of the 236 An. gambiae s.l.identified 12.6% (n = 34) were An. gambiae s.s. and 68.6% (n = 162) were An. arabiensis. Ofthe 34 An. funestus group indentified 91.2% (n = 31) were An. parensis and 8.8% (n = 3) were An. rivulorum. The overall Plasmodium falciparum sporozoite rate was 0.7% (n = 2,098).ConclusionsPirimiphos-methyl 300 CS was found to be effective for IRS in the Lake Victoria basin,Tanzania. P-methyl 300 CShas a long residual efficacy on sprayed wall surfaces and therefore it is effective in controlling principal malaria vectors of An. gambiae s.l and An. funestus which rest on wall surfaces after and before feeding.

Dataset Information

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Forecasting the Potential Effects of Climate Change on Malaria in the Lake Victoria Basin Using Regionalized Climate Projections.

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