Modelling the propagation of infectious disease via transportation networks.

ABSTRACT: The dynamics of human mobility have been known to play a critical role in the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19. In this paper, we present a simple compact way to model the transmission of infectious disease through transportation networks using widely available aggregate mobility data in the form of a zone-level origin-destination (OD) travel flow matrix. A key feature of our model is that it not only captures the propagation of infection via direct connections between zones (first-order effects) as in most existing studies but also transmission effects that are due to subsequent interactions in the remainder of the system (higher-order effects). We demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order effects in a simulation study. We then apply our model to study the first wave

SUBMITTER: Anupriya 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9707165 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature