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Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids.

ABSTRACT: The understanding of recovery processes in power distribution grids is limited by the lack of realistic outage data, especially large-scale blackout datasets. By analyzing data from three electrical companies across the United States, we find that the recovery duration of an outage is connected with the downtime of its nearby outages and blackout intensity (defined as the peak number of outages during a blackout), but is independent of the number of customers affected. We present a cluster-based recovery framework to analytically characterize the dependence between outages, and interpret the dominant role blackout intensity plays in recovery. The recovery of blackouts is not random and has a universal pattern that is independent of the disruption cause, the post-disaster network structure, and the detailed repair strategy. Our study reveals that suppressing blackout intensity is a promising way to speed up restoration.

SUBMITTER: Wu H

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9712383 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids.

Wu Hao H Meng Xiangyi X Danziger Michael M MM Cornelius Sean P SP Tian Hui H Barabási Albert-László AL

Nature communications 20221130 1

The understanding of recovery processes in power distribution grids is limited by the lack of realistic outage data, especially large-scale blackout datasets. By analyzing data from three electrical companies across the United States, we find that the recovery duration of an outage is connected with the downtime of its nearby outages and blackout intensity (defined as the peak number of outages during a blackout), but is independent of the number of customers affected. We present a cluster-based ...[more]

PMID: 36450824

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Project description:BackgroundCOPD is the third leading cause of death in the United States, with 16 million Americans currently experiencing difficulty with breathing. Power outages could be life-threatening for those relying on electricity. However, significant gaps remain in understanding the potential impact of power outages on COPD exacerbations.Research questionThe goal of this study was to determine how power outages affect COPD exacerbations.Study design and methodsUsing distributed lag nonlinear models controlling for time-varying confounders, the hospitalization rate during a power outage was compared vs non-outage periods to determine the rate ratio (RR) for COPD and its subtypes at each of 0 to 6 lag days in New York State from 2001 to 2013. Stratified analyses were conducted according to sociodemographic characteristics, season, and clinical severity; changes were investigated in numerous critical medical indicators, including length of stay, hospital cost, the number of comorbidities, and therapeutic procedures between the two periods.ResultsThe RR of COPD hospitalization following power outages ranged from 1.03 to 1.39 across lag days. The risk was strongest at lag0 and lag1 days and lasted significantly for 7 days. Associations were stronger for the subgroup with acute bronchitis (RR, 1.08-1.69) than for cases of acute exacerbation (RR, 1.03-1.40). Compared with non-outage periods, the outage period was observed to be $4.67 thousand greater in hospital cost and 1.38 greater in the number of comorbidities per case. The average cost (or number of comorbidities) was elevated in all groups stratified according to cost (or number of comorbidities). In contrast, changes in the average length of stay (-0.43 day) and the average number of therapeutic procedures (-0.09) were subtle.InterpretationPower outages were associated with a significantly elevated rate of COPD hospitalization, as well as greater costs and number of comorbidities. The average cost and number of comorbidities were elevated in all clinical severity groups.

Project description:Major power outages have risen over the last two decades, largely due to more extreme weather conditions. However, there is a lack of knowledge on the distribution of power outages and its relationship to social vulnerability and co-occurring hazards. We examined the associations between localized outages and social vulnerability factors (demographic characteristics), controlling for environmental factors (weather), in Washington State between 2018-2021. We additionally analyzed the validity of PowerOutage.us data compared to federal datasets. The population included 27 counties served by 14 electric utilities. We developed a continuous measure of daily outage burden using PowerOutage.us data and operationalized social vulnerability using four factors: poverty level, unemployment, disability, and limited English proficiency. We applied zero-altered lognormal generalized additive mixed-effects models to characterize the relationship between social vulnerability and daily power outage burden, controlling for daily minimum temperature, maximum wind speed, and precipitation, from 2018 to 2021 in Washington State. We found that social vulnerability factors have non-linear relationships with outages. Wind and precipitation are consistent drivers of outage occurrence and duration. There are seasonal effects that vary by county-utility area. Both PowerOutage.us and federal datasets have missing and inaccurate outage data. This is the first study evaluating differential exposure to localized outages as related to social vulnerability that has accounted for weather and temporal correlation. There is a lack of transparency into power outage distribution for those most vulnerable to climate impacts, despite known contributions by electric utilities to climate change. For effective public health surveillance of power outages and transparency, outage data should be made available at finer spatial resolution and temporal scales and/or utilities should be required to report differential exposure to power outages for socially vulnerable populations.

Dataset Information

Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids.

Publications

Fragmentation of outage clusters during the recovery of power distribution grids.

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