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National lockdowns in England: The same restrictions for all, but do the impacts on COVID-19 mortality risks vary geographically?

ABSTRACT: Quantifying the impact of lockdowns on COVID-19 mortality risks is an important priority in the public health fight against the virus, but almost all of the existing research has only conducted macro country-wide assessments or limited multi-country comparisons. In contrast, the extent of within-country variation in the impacts of a nation-wide lockdown is yet to be thoroughly investigated, which is the gap in the knowledge base that this paper fills. Our study focuses on England, which was subject to 3 national lockdowns between March 2020 and March 2021. We model weekly COVID-19 mortality counts for the 312 Local Authority Districts in mainland England, and our aim is to understand the impact that lockdowns had at both a national and a regional level. Specifically, we aim to quantify how long after the implementation of a lockdown do mortality risks reduce at a national level, the extent to which these impacts vary regionally within a country, and which parts of England exhibit similar impacts. As the spatially aggregated weekly COVID-19 mortality counts are small in size we estimate the spatio-temporal trends in mortality risks with a Poisson log-linear smoothing model that borrows strength in the estimation between neighbouring data points. Inference is based in a Bayesian paradigm, using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Our main findings are that mortality risks typically begin to reduce between 3 and 4 weeks after lockdown, and that there appears to be an urban-rural divide in lockdown impacts.

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PROVIDER: S-EPMC9719849 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Project description:Between March 2020 and March 2021, the United Kingdom (UK) experienced three lockdowns due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Given the evident association between arts engagement and wellbeing, this study was designed to compare the predictors and patterns of home-based arts engagement during these lockdowns. Data analysed in this study were from the UK COVID-19 Social Study run by University College London. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify predictors of arts engagement and compare (i) respondents' engagement levels during the first lockdown in April/May 2020 and their levels in pre-pandemic times (N = 23,086), (ii) their engagement levels during the second lockdown in November/December 2020 with their levels during the first lockdown (N = 11,481), and (iii) their engagement levels during the third lockdown in January/February 2021 with their levels during the first lockdown (N = 13,270). During first lockdown, 1 in 4 increased their arts engagement and 1 in 6 decreased it. Of those who increased, 2 in 5 maintained or further increased their engagement in subsequent lockdowns, but just 7% of those who had decreased their engagement increased it. Younger adults (aged 18-29) showed initial increases in first lockdown, whilst people who were not employed and those with a physical health condition showed decreases and people with a mental health condition showed changes during the first lockdown (both increases and decreases). Females and people with higher education showed continuous changes across the three lockdowns, with women being more likely to increase their engagement and those with higher education being less likely to decrease. People of ethnic minorities and those with higher income declined their engagement in the third lockdown. This study provides insight into levels of arts engagement across the three national lockdowns in the UK and suggests that the pandemic may have affected long-term cultural behaviours for some groups.

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National lockdowns in England: The same restrictions for all, but do the impacts on COVID-19 mortality risks vary geographically?

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