Dataset Information

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally.

Objectives

A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y.

Methods

The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs.

Results

We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%-21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.

Discussion

These results contrast with previous results, which brings new insight on the future impacts of climate change on Aedes densities. Major sources of uncertainties, such as mosquito model parametrization and climate model uncertainties, were addressed to explore the limits of such modeling. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068.

SUBMITTER: Bonnin L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9726451 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling.

Bonnin Lucas L Tran Annelise A Herbreteau Vincent V Marcombe Sébastien S Boyer Sébastien S Mangeas Morgan M Menkes Christophe C

Environmental health perspectives 20221206 12

<h4>Background</h4><i>Aedes aegypti</i> and <i>Ae. albopictus</i> mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on <i>Aedes</i> at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on <i>Ae. a ...[more]

PMID: 36473499

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Project description:BackgroundThe role played by regional organisations in climate change adaptation and health is growing in Southeast Asia, with the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment both supporting health and adaptation initiatives. There is, however, a lack of empirical research on the value that regional organisations add to national health-related adaptation. This qualitative research compares regional project and governance-based models of adaptation and health support in Southeast Asia, providing an analysis of strengths and weaknesses of each, as well as possibilities for improvement.MethodsAn existing adaptation assessment framework was modified for this research, and used as a guide to gather and analyse data from academic and grey literature, policy documents and interviews in order to qualitatively assess two organisations and their different models of adaptation and health support.ResultsThis research found differing strengths in the approaches to climate change and health used by the Asian Development Bank and by the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment. The regional forum has vision, high levels of perceived legitimacy, and access to 'in-house' expertise in public health and climate change. Conversely, the Asian Development Bank has strengths in project management and access to significant financial resources to support work in climate change and health.ConclusionWhen regional organisations, such as the Asian Development Bank and the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, have membership and mandate overlaps, their work will likely benefit from well designed, institutionalised and incentivised coordination mechanisms. Coordination can reduce redundancies as well as the administrative workload on partner government agencies. In the case-study examined, the Asian Development Bank's project management expertise complements the vision and high levels of perceived legitimacy of the Asia-Pacific Regional Forum on Health and Environment, thus a coordinated approach could deliver improved adaptation and health outcomes.

Dataset Information

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling.

Background

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Publications

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on Dengue Vector Densities in Southeast Asia through Process-Based Modeling.

Similar Datasets

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