Dataset Information

Prediction of occult atrial fibrillation in patients after cryptogenic stroke and transient ischaemic attack: PROACTIA.

ABSTRACT:

Aims

Studies with implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) show that one-third of patients with cryptogenic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) have episodes of subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) and benefit switching from antiplatelet- to anticoagulant therapy. However, ICMs are costly and resource demanding. We aimed to build a score based on participant's baseline characteristics that could assess individual risk of SCAF.

Methods and results

In a prospective study, 236 eligible patients with a final diagnosis of cryptogenic stroke/TIA had an ICM implantated during the index hospitalization. Pre-specified evaluated variables were: CHA2DS2-VASc, P-wave duration, P-wave morphology, premature atrial beats (PAC)/24 h, supraventricular tachycardia/24 h, left atrial end-systolic volume index (LAVI), Troponin-T, NT-proBNP, and D-dimer. SCAF was detected in 84 patients (36%). All pre-specified variables were significantly associated with SCAF detection in univariate analysis. P-wave duration, followed by PAC/24 h, NT-proBNP, and LAVI, had the largest ratio of SCAF prevalence between its upper and lower quartiles (3.3, vs. 3.2, vs. 3.1 vs. 2.8, respectively). However, in a multivariate analysis, only PAC/24t, P-wave duration, P-wave morphology, and LAVIs remained significant predictors and were included in the PROACTIA score. Subclinical atrial fibrillation prevalence was 75% in the highest vs. 10% in the lowest quartile of the PROACTIA score with a 10-fold higher number of patients with an atrial fibrillation burden >6 h in the highest vs. the lowest quartile.

Conclusion

The PROACTIA score can identify patients with cryptogenic stroke/TIA at risk of subsequent SCAF detection. The large difference in SCAF prevalence between groups may provide a basis for future tailored therapy.

Clinical trial registration

Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov; NCT02725944.

SUBMITTER: Skrebelyte-Strom L

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9733955 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Prediction of occult atrial fibrillation in patients after cryptogenic stroke and transient ischaemic attack: PROACTIA.

Skrebelyte-Strøm Loreta L Rønning Ole Morten OM Dahl Fredrik A FA Steine Kjetil K Kjekshus Harald H

Europace : European pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac electrophysiology : journal of the working groups on cardiac pacing, arrhythmias, and cardiac cellular electrophysiology of the European Society of Cardiology 20221201 12

<h4>Aims</h4>Studies with implantable cardiac monitors (ICMs) show that one-third of patients with cryptogenic stroke/transient ischaemic attack (TIA) have episodes of subclinical atrial fibrillation (SCAF) and benefit switching from antiplatelet- to anticoagulant therapy. However, ICMs are costly and resource demanding. We aimed to build a score based on participant's baseline characteristics that could assess individual risk of SCAF.<h4>Methods and results</h4>In a prospective study, 236 eligi ...[more]

PMID: 35819199

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Project description:BackgroundA third of transient ischaemic attacks (TIAs) and ischaemic strokes are of undetermined cause (ie, cryptogenic), potentially undermining secondary prevention. If these events are due to occult atheroma, the risk-factor profile and coronary prognosis should resemble that of overt large artery events. If they have a cardioembolic cause, the risk of future cardioembolic events should be increased. We aimed to assess the burden, outcome, risk factors, and long-term prognosis of cryptogenic TIA and stroke.MethodsIn a population-based study in Oxfordshire, UK, among patients with a first TIA or ischaemic stroke from April 1, 2002, to March 31, 2014, we compared cryptogenic events versus other causative subtypes according to the TOAST classification. We compared markers of atherosclerosis (ie, risk factors, coronary and peripheral arterial disease, asymptomatic carotid stenosis, and 10-year risk of acute coronary events) and of cardioembolism (ie, risk of cardioembolic stroke, systemic emboli, and new atrial fibrillation [AF] during follow-up, and minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities and subclinical paroxysmal AF at baseline in patients with index events between 2010 and 2014).FindingsAmong 2555 patients, 812 (32%) had cryptogenic events (incidence of cryptogenic stroke 0·36 per 1000 population per year, 95% CI 0·23-0·49). Death or dependency at 6 months was similar after cryptogenic stroke compared with non-cardioembolic stroke (23% vs 27% for large artery and small vessel subtypes combined; p=0·26) as was the 10-year risk of recurrence (32% vs 27%; p=0·91). However, the cryptogenic group had fewer atherosclerotic risk factors than the large artery disease (p<0·0001), small vessel disease (p=0·001), and cardioembolic (p=0·008) groups. Compared with patients with large artery events, those with cryptogenic events had less hypertension (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 0·41, 95% CI 0·30-0·56; p<0·0001), diabetes (0·62, 0·43-0·90; p=0·01), peripheral vascular disease (0·27, 0·17-0·45; p<0·0001), hypercholesterolaemia (0·53, 0·40-0·70; p<0·0001), and history of smoking (0·68, 0·51-0·92; p=0·01), and compared with small vessel and cardioembolic subtypes, they had no excess risk of asymptomatic carotid disease (adjusted OR 0·64, 95% CI 0·37-1·11; p=0·11) or acute coronary events (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0·76, 95% CI 0·49-1·18; p=0·22) during follow-up. Compared with large artery and small vessel subtypes combined, patients with cryptogenic events also had no excess of minor-risk echocardiographic abnormalities (cryptogenic 37% vs 45%; p=0·18) or paroxysmal AF (6% vs 10%; p=0·17) at baseline or of new AF (adjusted HR 1·23, 0·78-1·95; p=0·37) or presumed cardioembolic events (1·16, 0·62-2·17; p=0·64) during follow-up.InterpretationThe clinical burden of cryptogenic TIA and stroke is substantial. Although stroke recurrence rates are comparable with other subtypes, cryptogenic events have the fewest atherosclerotic markers and no excess of cardioembolic markers.FundingWellcome Trust, Wolfson Foundation, UK Stroke Association, British Heart Foundation, Dunhill Medical Trust, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre.

Project description:IntroductionLong-term cardiac monitoring studies have unveiled low-burden, occult atrial fibrillation (AF) in some patients with otherwise cryptogenic stroke (CS), but occult AF is also found in some individuals without a stroke history and in patients with stroke of a known cause (KS). Clinical management would be aided by estimates of how often occult AF in a patient with CS is causal vs. incidental.MethodsThrough a systematic search, we identified all case-control and cohort studies applying identical long-term monitoring techniques to both patients with CS and KS. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis across these studies to determine the best estimate of the differential frequency of occult AF in CS and KS among all patients and across age subgroups. We then applied Bayes' theorem to determine the probability that occult AF is causal or incidental.ResultsThe systematic search identified three case-control and cohort studies enrolling 560 patients (315 CS, 245 KS). Methods of long-term monitoring were implantable loop recorder in 31.0%, extended external monitoring in 67.9%, and both in 1.2%. Crude cumulative rates of AF detection were CS 47/315 (14.9%) vs. KS 23/246 (9.3%). In the formal meta-analysis, the summary odds ratio for occult AF in CS vs. KS in all patients was 1.80 (95% CI, 1.05-3.07), p = 0.03. With the application of Bayes' theorem, the corresponding probabilities indicated that, when present, occult AF in patients with CS is causal in 38.2% (95% CI, 0-63.6%) of patients. Analyses stratified by age suggested that detected occult AF in patients with CS was causal in 62.3% (95 CI, 0-87.1%) of patients under the age of 65 years and 28.5% (95 CI, 0-63.7%) of patients aged 65 years and older but estimates had limited precision.ConclusionCurrent evidence is preliminary, but it indicates that in cryptogenic stroke when occult AF is found, it is causal in about 38.2% of patients. These findings suggest that anticoagulation therapy may be beneficial to prevent recurrent stroke in a substantial proportion of patients with CS found to have occult AF.

Project description:BackgroundCerebral microbleeds are a potential neuroimaging biomarker of cerebral small vessel diseases that are prone to intracranial bleeding. We aimed to determine whether presence of cerebral microbleeds can identify patients at high risk of symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage when anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack.MethodsOur observational, multicentre, prospective inception cohort study recruited adults aged 18 years or older from 79 hospitals in the UK and one in the Netherlands with atrial fibrillation and recent acute ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, treated with a vitamin K antagonist or direct oral anticoagulant, and followed up for 24 months using general practitioner and patient postal questionnaires, telephone interviews, hospital visits, and National Health Service digital data on hospital admissions or death. We excluded patients if they could not undergo MRI, had a definite contraindication to anticoagulation, or had previously received therapeutic anticoagulation. The primary outcome was symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage occurring at any time before the final follow-up at 24 months. The log-rank test was used to compare rates of intracranial haemorrhage between those with and without cerebral microbleeds. We developed two prediction models using Cox regression: first, including all predictors associated with intracranial haemorrhage at the 20% level in univariable analysis; and second, including cerebral microbleed presence and HAS-BLED score. We then compared these with the HAS-BLED score alone. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT02513316.FindingsBetween Aug 4, 2011, and July 31, 2015, we recruited 1490 participants of whom follow-up data were available for 1447 (97%), over a mean period of 850 days (SD 373; 3366 patient-years). The symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage rate in patients with cerebral microbleeds was 9·8 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 4·0-20·3) compared with 2·6 per 1000 patient-years (95% CI 1·1-5·4) in those without cerebral microbleeds (adjusted hazard ratio 3·67, 95% CI 1·27-10·60). Compared with the HAS-BLED score alone (C-index 0·41, 95% CI 0·29-0·53), models including cerebral microbleeds and HAS-BLED (0·66, 0·53-0·80) and cerebral microbleeds, diabetes, anticoagulant type, and HAS-BLED (0·74, 0·60-0·88) predicted symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage significantly better (difference in C-index 0·25, 95% CI 0·07-0·43, p=0·0065; and 0·33, 0·14-0·51, p=0·00059, respectively).InterpretationIn patients with atrial fibrillation anticoagulated after recent ischaemic stroke or transient ischaemic attack, cerebral microbleed presence is independently associated with symptomatic intracranial haemorrhage risk and could be used to inform anticoagulation decisions. Large-scale collaborative observational cohort analyses are needed to refine and validate intracranial haemorrhage risk scores incorporating cerebral microbleeds to identify patients at risk of net harm from oral anticoagulation.FundingThe Stroke Association and the British Heart Foundation.

Dataset Information

Prediction of occult atrial fibrillation in patients after cryptogenic stroke and transient ischaemic attack: PROACTIA.

Aims

Methods and results

Conclusion

Clinical trial registration

Publications

Prediction of occult atrial fibrillation in patients after cryptogenic stroke and transient ischaemic attack: PROACTIA.

Similar Datasets

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