Dataset Information

Bayesian Decision Analysis: An Underutilized Tool in Veterinary Medicine.

ABSTRACT: Bayesian inference and decision analysis can be used to identify the most probable differential diagnosis and use those probabilities to identify the best choice of diagnostic or treatment among several alternatives. In this retrospective case analysis, we surveyed three experts on the prior probability of several differential diagnoses, given the signalment and history of a ferret presenting for lethargy and anorexia, and the conditional probability of different clinical findings (physical, bloodwork, imaging, etc.), given a diagnosis. Using these data and utility estimates provided by other clinicians, we constructed a decision tree to retrospectively identify the optimal treatment choice between exploratory laparotomy and medical management. We identified medical management as the optimal choice, in contrast to the original clinical team which performed an exploratory laparotomy. We discuss the potential cognitive biases of the original clinical team. We also discuss the strengths, e.g., shared decision making, and limitations of a Bayesian decision analysis in the veterinary clinic. Bayesian decision analysis can be a useful tool for retrospective case analysis and prospective decision making, especially for deciding on invasive interventions or end-of-life care. The dissimilarity of expert-derived probability estimates makes Bayesian decision analysis somewhat challenging to apply, particularly in wide-ranging specialties like zoological medicine.

SUBMITTER: Cummings CO

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9738643 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Bayesian Decision Analysis: An Underutilized Tool in Veterinary Medicine.

Cummings Charles O CO Mitchell Mark A MA Perry Sean M SM Fleissner Nicholas N Mayer Jörg J Lennox Angela M AM Johnson-Delaney Cathy A CA

Animals : an open access journal from MDPI 20221204 23

Bayesian inference and decision analysis can be used to identify the most probable differential diagnosis and use those probabilities to identify the best choice of diagnostic or treatment among several alternatives. In this retrospective case analysis, we surveyed three experts on the prior probability of several differential diagnoses, given the signalment and history of a ferret presenting for lethargy and anorexia, and the conditional probability of different clinical findings (physical, blo ...[more]

PMID: 36496936

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Project description:Evidence-based decision making is a hallmark of effective veterinary clinical practice. Scoping reviews, systematic reviews, and meta-analyses all are methods intended to provide transparent and replicable ways of summarizing a body of research to address an important clinical or public health issue. As these methods increasingly are being used by researchers and read by practitioners, it is important to understand the distinction between these techniques and to understand what research questions they can, and cannot, address. This review provides an overview of scoping reviews, systematic reviews, and meta-analysis, including a discussion of the method and uses. A sample dataset and coding to conduct a simple meta-analysis in the statistical program R also are provided. Scoping reviews are a descriptive approach, designed to chart the literature around a particular topic. The approach involves an extensive literature search, following by a structured mapping, or charting, of the literature. The results of scoping reviews can help to inform future research by identifying gaps in the existing literature and also can be used to identify areas where there may be a sufficient depth of literature to warrant a systematic review. Systematic reviews are intended to address a specific question by identifying and summarizing all of the available research that has addressed the review question. Questions types that can be addressed by a systematic review include prevalence/incidence questions, and questions related to etiology, intervention efficacy, and diagnostic test accuracy. The systematic review process follows structured steps with multiple reviewers working in parallel to reduce the potential for bias. An extensive literature search is undertaken and, for each relevant study identified by the search, a formal extraction of data, including the effect size, and assessment of the risk of bias is performed. The results from multiple studies can be combined using meta-analysis. Meta-analysis provides a summary effect size, and allows heterogeneity of effect among studies to be quantified and explored. These evidence synthesis approaches can provide scientific input to evidence-based clinical decision-making for veterinarians and regulatory bodies, and also can be useful for identifying gaps in the literature to enhance the efficiency of future research in a topic area.

Dataset Information

Bayesian Decision Analysis: An Underutilized Tool in Veterinary Medicine.

Publications

Bayesian Decision Analysis: An Underutilized Tool in Veterinary Medicine.

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