Dataset Information

Secular Trends in Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Taiwan from 1985 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

ABSTRACT: In Taiwan, the age-standardized incidence of EC, especially esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), has increased substantially during the past thirty years. We described the incidence trends of EC from 1985-2019 by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) and age-period-cohort model by using Taiwan Cancer Registry data. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the period and cohort effects of ESCC and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). The Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between age-adjusted incidence rates of EC and the prevalence of risk factors from national surveys. The results showed the incidence rate of ESCC in men (AAPC = 4.2, 95% CI = 3.1-5.4, p < 0.001) increased prominently from 1985-1989 to 2015-2019 while that of EAC in men (AAPC = 1.2, 95% CI = 0.9-1.5, p < 0.001) and ESCC in women (AAPC = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.1, p < 0.001) increased to a lesser degree. Increased period effects were observed in ESCC in men, ESCC in women, and EAC in men. High correlations were found between the risk factors and the increased birth-cohort effects of ESCC (p < 0.05). To conclude, the incidence of ESCC in both sex and EAC in men increased with statistical significance in recent decades. The increased prevalence of risk factors from approximately 1970-1995 could explain the increased cohort effects of ESCC.

SUBMITTER: Tsai MC

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9741308 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Secular Trends in Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Taiwan from 1985 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Tsai Min-Chen MC Chou Yu-Ching YC Lee Yu-Kwang YK Hsu Wan-Lun WL Tang Chin-Sheng CS Chen Shiow-Ying SY Huang Shih-Pei SP Chen Yong-Chen YC Lee Jang-Ming JM

Cancers 20221127 23

In Taiwan, the age-standardized incidence of EC, especially esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), has increased substantially during the past thirty years. We described the incidence trends of EC from 1985−2019 by an average annual percentage change (AAPC) and age-period-cohort model by using Taiwan Cancer Registry data. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to estimate the period and cohort effects of ESCC and esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC). The Spearman’s correlation coefficient was used t ...[more]

PMID: 36497327

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Project description:BackgroundThe incidence and mortality trends of esophageal cancer (EC) remain unknown in China. This study aimed to describe the trend in incidence and mortality of EC in China.MethodsWe extracted age-standardized rates and numbers of EC in China for 1990-2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study 2019. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) were calculated to describe the trends, while the annual percentage of change and the average annual percent change (AAPC) were analyzed by the joinpoint regression analysis. The incidence and mortality data were analyzed via age-period-cohort model analysis.ResultsThe ASIR and ASMR decreased slightly before 1999, then increased from 1999 to 2004, and decreased again thereafter, with overall AAPC values of -2.5 (-2.8, -2.1) for females and -0.9 (-1.1, -0.8) for males regarding incidence, with overall AAPC values of -3.1 (-3.3, -2.9) for females and -1.2 (-1.3, -1.1) for males regarding mortality. As a whole, the relative risk (RR) of EC increased with age in both females and males regarding incidence and mortality, except for the 80-84-year-old age group in females and the 85-89-year-old age group in males regarding incidence, where they began to decrease. The RR of EC increased with age in females and males regarding mortality, except for the 85-89-year-old age group in males. The time period showed a trend of first rising and then decreasing, and the RR of time period effect was lower in 2015 than that in 1990 in females regarding both incidence and mortality, whereas males showed a significant upward trend in both incidence and mortality. The birth cohort effect showed an overall downward trend.ConclusionsThe overall incidence and mortality of EC in China shows an increased and then decreased trend from 1990 to 2019. The AAPC decreased in incidence and mortality from 1990 to 2019. The RR of incidence and mortality of EC in China is greatly affected by age in both sexes, by time period in male, we should be paid more attention to.

Project description:BackgroundRheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a major public health problem. Unfortunately, there is a scarcity of comprehensive and up-to-date information regarding the burden of RA and its dynamic trends in subsequent years. To examine the changing trends in the global burden of RA and forecast for 2044, which will facilitate the development of strategies tailored to RA burden and provide reference for the development of effective treatment guidelines.MethodsFollowing the general analytical strategy used the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, which included 204 countries, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) and age-standardized disability adjusted of life year (DALY) rate for RA were analyzed.ResultsThe ASIR, ASMR and age-standardized DALY rate for RA in 2019 were 13.001/100,000 (95% UI, 11.833 ~ 14.274), 0.574/100,000 (95% UI, 0.356 ~ 0.793) and 39.565/100,000 (95% UI, 49.529 ~ 30.508), respectively. America had the highest ASIR [18.578(95% UI, 17.147 ~ 20.148)] and age-standardized DALY rate [53.676(95% UI, 40.106 ~ 67.968)] in 2019. Asia had the highest ASMR [0.681(95% UI, 0.802 ~ 0.480)] in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the ASIR was observed in both males [0.237% (95% CI, 0.216 ~ 0.259%)] and females [0.197% (95% CI, 0.141 ~ 0.254%)], AAPC in the ASMR was observed in both males [-0.398% (95% CI, -0.605~-0.191%)] and females [-0.295% (95% CI, -0.424~-0.65%)]. Age effects indicated that the relative risk (RR) of RA-associated incidence and mortality rates increased with age among males and females. The RR of RA increased over time and started to gradually increase from 1990. Cohort effects showed decreases in incidence, mortality and DALY rates in successive birth cohorts. The global incidence of RA would continue to increase in the future, while mortality would continue to decrease.ConclusionThe increased risk of RA is dominantly influenced by age effects and period effects and the ethnic area. The results suggest that early identification and treatment of RA is important for reducing the ongoing burden with age, and targeted health education and specific intervention programs should be promoted to control middle-elderly population.

Project description:BackgroundThe number of individuals with dementia is increasing, which negatively affects families, communities, and health care systems worldwide. The changes in the incidence of and mortality due to Alzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia at the national level in China have remained unknown over the past three decades.MethodsFollowing the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019, the age- and sex-specific incidence and mortality rates for dementia in China were analyzed. Trends in the incidence of and mortality due to dementia from 1990 to 2019 were assessed by joinpoint regression analysis. The effects of age, period and cohort on the incidence of and mortality due to dementia were estimated by an age-period-cohort model.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence and mortality rates per 100,000 population were 103.83 (95% UI, 87.93-118.87) and 23.32 (95% UI, 5.66-61.31), respectively, for dementia in 2019. From 1990 to 2019, a significant average annual percentage change (AAPC) in the age-standardized incidence rate was observed in both males [0.49% (95% CI, 0.43-0.55%)] and females [0.31% (95% CI, 0.24-0.38%)], and the age-standardized mortality rate significantly increased in males [0.42% (95% CI, 0.31-0.53%)]. The population aged 55-59 years had the highest AAPC in the incidence of dementia [0.87% (95% CI, 0.81-0.93%)]. The age effect showed that the relative risks (RRs) of incident dementia and dementia-associated mortality increased with age among males and females, and individuals aged 60 years and older had significantly higher RRs. The RR of incident dementia increased with time, and the RR started to substantially increase in 2009. The cohort effect showed that the incidence decreased in successive birth cohorts.ConclusionAlzheimer's disease and other forms of dementia continue to become more common among males and females in China, and the associated mortality rate in males significantly increased from 1990 to 2019. Early interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of dementia on individuals at high risk in China.

Project description:BackgroundAnxiety disorders (ADs) are the most common mental illness with high prevalence, chronicity, and comorbidity. Despite rapid economic and cultural development, the global incidence of ADs continues to increase, with predominance in male individuals.ObjectiveTo address the above issues, we analyzed the dynamic trends of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs from 1990 to 2019 and their different effects on age, period, and birth cohort and predicted the future trend of AD incidence.MethodsThe data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2019. A joinpoint regression model was used to calculate the annual percent change in AD incidence, and age-period-cohort analysis was used to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort. Nordpred age-period-cohort analysis was used to predict the incidence of ADs from 2020 to 2044.ResultsThe age-standardized incidence rate of ADs increased by 1.06% for both sexes, and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) rate (ASDR) decreased by 0.12%. Joinpoint regression indicated that increments in average annual percent changes in the age-standardized incidence rate (0.068 vs 0.012) and ASDR (0.035 vs -0.015) for ADs globally were higher among male individuals than female individuals. The age-period-cohort analyses revealed that the relative risk (RR) of the incidence and DALYs of ADs among people of different sexes increased with age in adolescence and middle age and then decreased. For the period effect, the RR of incidence decreased, whereas the RR of DALYs increased in both sexes. Moreover, the RR of the incidence gradually increased and DALYs slowly decreased with birth year for both male and female individuals. New cases of ADs in male individuals are predicted to increase in the coming 25 years.ConclusionsThis study provided the changing trend of the global incidence and disease burden of ADs in the past 3 decades, indicating that early prevention and effective control cannot be ignored. We analyzed the age-period-cohort effect of potential trends in ADs and predicted future incidence trends. The results suggest that we should take active intervention measures, focusing on high-risk groups and developing effective management and control policies to reduce the global burden of disease.

Project description:BackgroundThe majority of epidemiological studies on migraine have been conducted in a specific country or region, and there is a lack of globally comparable data. We aim to report the latest information on global migraine incidence overview trends from 1990 to 2019.MethodsIn this study, the available data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019. We present temporal trends in migraine for the world and its 204 countries and territories over the past 30 years. Meanwhile, an age-period-cohort model be used to estimate net drifts (overall annual percentage change), local drifts (annual percentage change in each age group), longitudinal age curves (expected longitudinal age-specific rate), and period (cohort) relative risks.ResultsIn 2019, the global incidence of migraine increased to 87.6 million (95% UI: 76.6, 98.7), with an increase of 40.1% compared to 1990. India, China, United States of America, and Indonesia had the highest number of incidences, accounting for 43.6% of incidences globally. Females experienced a higher incidence than males, the highest incidence rate was observed in the 10-14 age group. However, there was a gradual transition in the age distribution of incidence from teenagers to middle-aged populations. The net drift of incidence rate ranged from 3.45% (95% CI: 2.38, 4.54) in high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions to -4.02% (95% CI: -4.79, -3.18) in low SDI regions, 9 of 204 countries showed increasing trends (net drifts and its 95% CI were > 0) in incidence rate. The age-period-cohort analysis results showed that the relative risk of incidence rate generally showed unfavorable trends over time and in successively birth cohorts among high-, high-middle-, and middle SDI regions, but low-middle- and low-SDI regions keep stable.ConclusionsMigraine is still an important contributor to the global burden of neurological disorders worldwide. Temporal trends in migraine incidence are not commensurate with socioeconomic development and vary widely across countries. Both sexes and all age groups should get healthcare to address the growing migraine population, especially adolescents and females.

Dataset Information

Secular Trends in Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Taiwan from 1985 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Publications

Secular Trends in Incidence of Esophageal Cancer in Taiwan from 1985 to 2019: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

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