The research on TBATS and ELM models for prediction of human brucellosis cases in mainland China: a time series study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Human brucellosis is a serious public health concern in China. The objective of this study is to develop a suitable model for forecasting human brucellosis cases in mainland China.

Methods

Data on monthly human brucellosis cases from January 2012 to December 2021 in 31 provinces and municipalities in mainland China were obtained from the National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China website. The TBATS and ELM models were constructed. The MAE, MSE, MAPE, and RMSE were calculated to evaluate the prediction performance of the two models.

Results

The optimal TBATS model was TBATS (1, {0,0}, -, {< 12,4 >}) and the lowest AIC value was 1854.703. In the optimal TBATS model, {0,0} represents the ARIMA (0,0) model, {< 12,4 >} are the parameters of the

SUBMITTER: Zhao D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC9746081 | biostudies-literature | 2022 Dec

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature